AUD/USD bulls lose control below the 1hr 200 sma ahead of key US events
|Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7639, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7648 and low at 0.7636.
Momentum remains positive despite the narrower 100 pip range between 0.7600 and 0.7700 as the greenback makes tracks again as a top performer while markets back the stock market and exit bonds. The US 10yr treasury yields extended a multi-day rise overnight from 2.41% to 2.45% and the US dollar index is up 0.2% to a three-week high. copper prices are also weighing in the Aussie.
Trump and the US dollar - HSBC
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
Analysts at Westpac are calling fro lower to 0.7400. "The US dollar’s impressive post-election rally may have paused but still has potential to rise further during the months ahead," explained the analyst, adding, "The Fed’s assertive tightening bias plus US fiscal expansion should maintain upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar."
Dollar king flexing muscles ahead of key US events/data this week - ANZ
Commodities
The same analysts explained that against that coal and iron ore are likely to sustain a good portion of their dramatic rises, and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should improve, but said these forces are subservient to the US dollar’s trend. Australia’s AAA rating will remain an issue into the May budget. (23 Dec)
AUD/USD levels
The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. The recent break below the 200 sma on the 1hr sticks at 0.7645 was significant and is breaking the ascending support line with 0.7604 as a key target from here 0.7576 (low Feb.2) and 0.7530 above the 100-DMA thereafter.
To the upside, a break of the 0.7645 Fibo resistance on a daily closing basis and tests through 0.7680, 0.7720 opens 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement. "Directly above here lies the 200 month ma at 0.7930. Very near term we would allow for a dip to .7470/.7490 ahead of further gains," explained analysts at Commerzbank.
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