AUD/USD: bullish momentum for session ahead, target 0.7624 June 20 high?
|Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7592, up 0.09% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7626 and low at 0.7577.
AUD/USD has found some traction again having been sold off from the aforementioned highs. The pair dropped below a key technical level and the 0.7585 pivot but not by much and as such remains better bid currently. The extension can get back to the highs with RSI still bullish, but a break with momentum below the pivot opens up the risk towards
0.7560 & 0.7550 immediate targets on the shorter time frames.
US Dollar Index drops sharply, eyes lowest close since October
The fundamentals have the pair performing well on the carry trade-related demand and also metals have been performing more positively of late with Dalian iron ore, for instance, closing higher by 5.92% overnight. While the market continues to price in an additional Fed hike for Dec around 40%, there are conflicting analyses on the US and global economy. The risk of lower inflation and GDP estimates are weighing on the US yields, despite the pickup today of +2.86% in the ten's as we head towards the close.
2.30% is the psychological target on the ten-year notes, so they are still somewhat under water and down 10% YTD which continues to anchor the dollar. We also had Yellen speaking today with a more dovish stance when she said, "Even though the jobless rate is low, below levels that most colleagues see as sustainable, inflation has continued to run below our objectives."
AUD/USD levels
Resistance: 0.7608 pivot R2; 0.7624 June 20 high; 0.7663 March 31 high; 0.7680 March 30 high. Support: 0.7555 100-DMA; 0.7530 200-DMA; 0.7500 June 7 low; 0.7457 June 6 low; 0.7408 June 5 low; 0.7373 June 1/2 lows; 0.7336 May 11 low.
"Above 0.7635/42 should trigger a move to the top of the triangle at 0.7712. Below the 55 day ma targets the bottom of the triangle at 0.7342," suggested analysts at Commerzbank.
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