AUD/NZD bulls keen for a test on the 1.05 handle on NZ jobs data big miss
|- AUD/NZD bulls rescued by NZ jobs data disappointments.
- AUD/NZD up big time and looking into the 1.05 handle once again.
Following a surprisingly dovish speech from the RBA yesterday that took the shine out of AUD which has lost upside momentum against the kiwi, the NZ employment data is now in the driving seat today and has allowed the pair to rally with an impressive considering the switch up at the RBA.
"The RBA Governor speech to the National Press Club revealed a more neutral stance than that suggested in yesterday's RBA Board policy statement where "... there are scenarios where the next move in the cash rate is up and other scenarios where it is down. Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced,"
analysts at TD Securities noted.
However, the data was very disappointing and will weigh on sentiment leading into the next RBNZ meeting. Casting minds back, the Q3 report was extremely strong, with the unemployment rate sinking from 4.4% to 3.9% while total jobs surged 1.1%.
Today's miss at 4.3% vs the expected 4.1 has dented the improvement to date and will give the RBNZ something to think about considering the prior was way down at 3.9%. The employment change at 0.1 % q/q vs expected 0.3% and prior at 1.1% is also a big miss.
AUD/NZD levels
AUD/NZD was testing the neckline of the daily H&S (if discounting the flash crash lows) with the confluence of the Dec bear tern lows and S2 located at 1.0420. However, the level has proven once again to be solid and bulls have taken the price up to through the 1hr 100 SMA located at 1.0480, for a test of the daily pivot at 1.0490 and 1.05 the figure. A break there opens R1 located at 1.0530.
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