Why Bitcoin could hit 100k soon

• Bitcoin outperforms stocks & Gold in April. 

• Hopes of US- China trade war de-escalation aid sentiment. 

• Spot BTC ETF demand soars with near-record inflows last week. 

• Strategy purchases exceed supply.  

• BTC worth $4.7 billion is pulled from exchanges this week. 

• BTC/USD tests 95k resistance. 

Bitcoin consolidates around 95k, having rallied 11.2% last week in a move that saw BTC rise above its 200 SMA. The cryptocurrency outperformed US equities and Gold last week and also across April. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.5% this month, Gold gained 6%, while Bitcoin surged 15% in April, supported by sustained BTC ETF inflows, corporate buying and positive comments surrounding US regulation. So, is a move to 100 coming? 

Broad market sentiment is being aided by the White House's statement that President Trump was considering some concessions in his automotive tariffs to cushion their impact on the US economy. This comes after the Trump administration and China appeared to soften their stance last week, spurring hopes of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war. 

Institutional demand returns with vigor

While the macro backdrop is showing signs of avoiding the worst-case scenario, institutional demand for Bitcoin has also flipped firmly positive. Spot BTC ETF posted net inflows of $3.06 billion last week, the second highest level ever, and has also booked seven straight days of net inflows. 

A synthetic halving by MSTR? 

Strategy (MSTR) also added a further 15,355 Bitcoin for $1.42 billion, taking its total holdings to 553.555. With miners currently producing around 450 BTC per day, or 13,500 BTC per month, Strategy’s recent purchases have exceeded supply. This could be seen as a Strategy of synthetically having Bitcoin, potentially making Bitcoin more scarce and, in time, creating a supply crunch.  

Strategy isn’t alone in its Bitcoin treasury plan. 21 Capital, a collaboration of Wall Street firms and crypto heavyweights, including Cantor Fitzgerald, SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex, was launched last week. The group plans to create a multibillion-dollar Bitcoin acquisition vehicle modelled on Staregty’s approach. 

BTC leaves exchanges, tightening supply 

In addition to encouraging comments from Trump, the return of institutional and solid corporate demand, and bitcoin’s declining supply on exchanges, the bullish case for a rally towards 100K is also supported. Investors have withdrawn over 50,500 BTC from exchanges worth $4.7 billion over the past week, as the macro backdrop has improved. Lower exchange supply reduces available BTC for selling, increasing price-sensitive demand.

Bitcoin technical analysis – key levels to watch 

Bitcoin broke above its 200 SMA at 88k last week, rallying 11.2% before hitting resistance at 95.8k. The price has eased back to 94.8k at the time of writing as BTC continues to consolidate around 95k, bringing the RSI away from overbought territory.  

95k is a key resistance that buyers will need to meaningfully rise above to extend gains towards 100k, the psychological level. The more attempts it makes at 95K, the more likely to push through. 

Failure to rise meaningfully above the 95k level could see BTC extend declines towards support at 90k. 

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