NEO Price Forecast: NEO gets ready for turbulence ahead of mainnet update

• NEO mainnet update will be launched on block 6,200,000.
• NEO/USD is trading within a short-term sliding channel.
• A sustainable move above $25.50 will signal that the downside correction is over.

NEO is the 16th largest digital asset with the current market capitalization of $1.77 billion and an average daily trading volume of $1.2 billion, mostly in line with the current values. NEO/USD topped at $25.89 and retreated to the recent low of $22.76 on Sunday, September 20. At the time of writing, the coin is changing hands at $24.89. Despite the recovery, it is still down over 4% on a day-to-day basis. 

NEO gets ready for mainnet update

NEO developers announced a significant mainnet update that would drastically change the transaction prioritization mechanism and alter the free gas threshold. A bidding mode introduced in the new version will give the priority for processing transactions with higher GAS.

The new version was 2.12.0, will be activated on block 6,200,000. According to the press release published on the project's official blog, the developers expected to launch the update on September 20; however, we are still eight blocks away from the target value. 

NEO on-chain statistics

Source: neoscan.io

The MainNet might be temporarily unstable during the activation period, meaning that NEO may be in for short-term price turbulence.

The hard fork will occur at block height 620000; we urge all relevant parties to pay attention and perform the upgrade in advance in order to avoid data conflicts.

NEO/USD: The technical picture

On the 4-hour chart, NEO/USD is moving within a downside-looking channel with the support currently at $23.00. As we have reported earlier, this area served as a local resistance for the coin before it was turned into support during the previous week. 

If the upside momentum is sustained, the price may recovery to the channel resistance at $25.50, closely followed by the recent recovery high of $25.89. Once this area is cleared, the bullish momentum may start gaining traction with the next focus on $27.00, signaling that the downside correction is over. 

Meanwhile, the support of $23.00 is reinforced by the 4-hour SMA50 at $22.50. A sustainable move below this area will invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and bring $20.00 into view. 

NEO/USD 4-hour chart

If we zoom out a 12-hour chart, the support of $20.00 is reinforced by SMA50, meaning that the bears will have a hard time pushing the price below this area. This psychological line has been limiting the downside correction since September 13, while all sell-off attempts were heavily bought. A daily close below this area will attract new bears to the market and increase the selling pressure with the next target of $19.00 (the lower line of the 12-hour Bollinger Band) and $17.60 (12-hour SMA100). 

NEO/USD 12-hour hour

To conclude: NEO/USD has recovered from the short-term channel support is moving within the short-term sliding channel. A sustainable move above $25.50 will signal that the correction is over and bring the upside trend back on track. On the other hand, the critical support is created by $20.00, a sustainable move lower will negate the favorable scenario at this stage.