Monero Price Forecast: XMR risks a drop below $300 under mounting bearish pressure
|- Monero is approaching the $300 mark, down 4% so far on Monday, extending the decline from the previous day.
- Derivatives data indicate a bearish sentiment among traders, consistent with $240,000 long liquidations over the last 24 hours.
- The technical outlook for Monero is bearish, eyeing the crucial support zone near $300.
Monero (XMR) starts the week under pressure, recording a 4% decline at press time on Monday after a 7% drop the previous day, putting the $300 support zone in focus. The privacy coin is losing retail strength, with the recent slide wiping out roughly $240,000 in Monero derivatives over the last 24 hours. The technical outlook indicates downside risk, with a lower leg potentially crossing below $300.
Monero bulls lose strength amid mounting pressure
Monero bulls are under extreme pressure, as CoinGlass data show long liquidations totaling $239,480, significantly higher than short liquidations of $693.22 over the last 24 hours. This indicates a primarily long-side-focused wipeout driven by declining XMR spot prices.
The XMR futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $101.65 million on Monday, recording more than 11% decline in the last 24 hours amid increased long-side liquidations. Additionally, the liquidations lead to sell-side dominance in XMR derivatives, with the long-to-short ratio dropping to 0.6548, indicating the greater number of active short positions.
How low will Monero go?
Monero peaked at $364 last week, but a 7% drop brought the closing price to $331 on Sunday, capping weekly gains at just under 4%. At the time of writing, Monero is down 4% on Monday and remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a short-term bearish bias. The privacy coin is inching closer to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $302, drawn from the August 15 low at $231 to the January 14 high at $800.
Additionally, a support zone between $290 and $302 could absorb incoming supply pressure. A decisive close below this zone could extend the XMR decline to $231.
The technical indicators on the daily chart flash downside risk as sellers retain trend control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, retracing toward the oversold zone after a minor recovery last week, indicating renewed selling pressure and further downside before reaching the oversold zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the signal line remain flat after Friday's crossover, in negative territory, indicating a neutral-to-bearish stance.
Looking up, a rebound in Monero should exceed the range between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $372 and the 200-day EMA at $381 for a sustained recovery. If this happens, it could target the 50-day EMA at $416, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $430.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.