Bitcoin price forecast: Is BTC gears up towards 112k? Key scenarios to watch
|- Bitcoin rebounds off $98K weekly FVG as institutional inflows, political clarity, and Fed rate cut bets drive bullish sentiment.
- Technically, BTC trades above equilibrium near $109K with key support at $106K–$108K and resistance at $112k.
- A bullish breakout eyes new highs, while failure to hold FVGs risks downside to $103K–$104K.
Fundamental narratives driving Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin has once again ignited market hype, recovering sharply after bouncing off from $98,000 level taking out June 5 low and revisiting the volume imbalance, weekly Fair Value Gap resting between $97,900-$100,700 BTC is now trading near the $109,000 level, on above equilibrium as bullish tailwinds gather momentum from multiple directions:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows: Over $45 billion in inflows this month alone are fueling confidence, led by U.S.-based institutional investors seeking exposure via regulated vehicles.
- Corporate Accumulation: “Strategy” (formerly MicroStrategy) added another $530 million in BTC, boosting their holdings to over 597,000 BTC—a sign of long-term conviction.
- Political & Regulatory Clarity: U.S. regulatory clarity with bipartisan bills (like the GENIUS Act) and pro-crypto positioning from political figures (e.g., Trump) are helping reduce uncertainty.
- Interest Rate Bets: Markets are pricing in a 72.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, creating a more risk-on environment that supports crypto inflows.
- Weaker USD & Safe-Haven Demand: As the dollar consolidates and geopolitical risks ease (e.g., temporary ceasefires in the Middle East), Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized hedge continues to shine.
Technical outlook – BTC/USDT daily and four-hour structure
BTC is now trading on a premium level above equilibrium (Above the 50% of the Previous Range) near $109,000 with no signs of reversal or weakness as bullish macros mention support a bullish Bitcoin.
On the 4-Hour, after dropping at $105,000 level, there’s no follow-through for downside continuation, indicating strength on Bitcoin as risk-on sentiment continue to push price for new highs.
Bullish scenario: Rally toward new highs
Bitcoin remains poised to continue its bullish momentum if price holds above key support (Fair Value Gap + Premium Fibonacci Levels) and invalidates near-term resistance. Bullish traction will still be intact if:
- 1st Layer Fair Value Gap between $107,860.23 - $108,650.97 gets respected with 0.23+0.38 Fibonacci Levels acts as supports.
- 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap between $106,216.08 - $107,080.00 (Last Line of Defense) remains intact.
A caution on 2nd Layer Fair Value Gap - We would like price to just bounce off at that level and not consolidate for renewed strength.
Targets:
- $111,980 – Immediate resistance.
- $112,000 – All-Time High Level.
Bearish scenario: Another rejection from resistance
Should Bitcoin fail to sustain above key levels or if macro risk sentiment turns, a downside retracement could unfold.
Another layer of invalidation and could pose downside risk is if:
- The Fair Value Gap Levels fail to hold:
- 1st Layer - $107,860.23 - $108,650.97.
- 2nd Layer - $106,216.08 - $107,080.00.
- Ultimately, a breakdown below $105,000 level could pull the coin for a deeper pullback.
Targets:
- Daily Fair Value Gap - $103,400 - $104,600.
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