What to Worry about Today: Big country lies
|Outlook:
We get existing home sales today, one of the most important of the interest-rate sensitive sectors. Expectation are not running high for a favorable outcome so we should probably expect some angst today.
It’s a messy end of the week. Over the weekend, we might get some new stories about the murder in Istanbul, the date of the next recession (big banks say 2020), the US midterms, and a few other hot points—but the main event is likely whatever Italian leaders say about being insulted and treated like a child by the EC. Demanding an explanation in a few days is stunningly supercilious. It’s exactly like a parent demanding of a teenage where he spent the evening and why he is missed his curfew getting home. You don’t have to be a hot-blooded Italian to get your feathers ruffled by such treatment.
Gee, it’s almost as though the EC is trying to pick a fight. An intemperate response would show the EC’s point—Italy can’t be trusted to do the responsible things. The EC seemingly plans to ground its teenager for a month and no car for a week. This is no way for allies to treat one another. It seems Brussels learned nothing from Greece. Remember that a lot of what the Greek leaders were saying at the time was perfectly accurate in term of economic analysis—without a bailout, the fiscal austerity was going to lunge Greece into poverty and misery for many years. And so it did. But Italy has already suffered quite a lot from hitting EC targets and wants to try something different. The EC is making a big mistake by refusing to work with Italy and instead working against what its leaders see as Italy’s best interests. Clash of sovereigns, indeed.
The euro is toast. That doesn’t mean the dollar is king, but turmoil elsewhere tends to favor the US.
This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.
To get a free trial, please write to ber@rts-forex.com and you will be added to the mailing list..
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.