Weekly waves: EUR/USD, Bitcoin and DAX 30

• The EUR/USD showed a bullish weekly candle last week. What does it mean for the long-term picture? Let’s review.

• Bitcoin is building a triangle chart pattern at the moment, which is indicating a lengthy period of consolidation and uncertainty.

• The DAX 30 chart made a strong decline but also a strong bounce after reaching the 12,500 support zone.

EUR/USD bullish reversal candlesticks on weekly?

1. The EUR/USD was unable to break below the previous low and bottom. The bullish bounce created a bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly chart.

2. The bullish reaction could indicate a first signal that a wave D (pink) of a larger ABCDE triangle pattern (pink) is taking place.

3. A bullish ABC (green) pattern in wave E (pink) would confirm it.

4. The wave A (green) will probably reach the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level before making a wave B (green) down.

5. The wave E (pink) can bounce (red arrows) at any Fibonacci level of the wave C-D price swing.

6. An immediate break below the bottom invalidates the bullish correction. Whereas a break above the top invalidates the bearish triangle pattern.

BTC/USD bullish triangle chart pattern

1. BTC/USD is making lower highs and higher lows. This triangle pattern occurs after a strong bearish price swing (wave A gray).

2. The triangle pattern, however, seems to favor a bullish retracement within wave B (gray).

3. This bullish outlook remains valid as long as price action remains above the support trend lines (green).

4. A break above the resistance (orange lines) could indicate a push up towards the Fibonacci resistance retracement levels and previous top.

5. Those Fib levels and top are expected to be resistance and stop price from rising further.

6. A deep price swing towards the Fibonacci levels could be an ABC flat whereas a shallow move up is an ABC zigzag.

7. An immediate push below the support indicates a downtrend and not a bullish retracement.

DAX 30 bounce could test previous top

1. The DAX 30 is probably making a wave B (pink) upwards.

2. The resistance zone and previous top could therefore cap the move up.

3. A bearish bounce at the resistance would confirm this wave analysis.

4. A move down towards the 23.6% would then be expected.

5. The next major support and decision zone is the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

6. A break below the 23.6% Fib could indicate a deep wave C (pink).

7. A bullish bounce could indicate a shallow ABC and more uptrend.

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The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter