Weekly Market Brief (Forex and Commodities)

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7313 ( +85 or +1.18% )

The Aussie dollar is flirting with a key double top as buyers continue to raise prices. This is a big week set for the Aussie Dollar and we will be discussing this in more detail in the the MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 11:30 – Current Account
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Announcement 
Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance

For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282, followed by a retest and close above 0.7364. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7447 before a pause; and if momentum remains very strong we will look for a big move into 0.7489.

If we cannot close above 0.7282, we will look for a move back down to 0.7229. A strong break below this level may result in a move down into 0.7169 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7112.

 

EUR/USD – 1.1319 ( -13 or -0.11% )

This Euro has remain unchanged last week and thus our levels and commentary remain the same.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks

For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end.

If the EURO cannot close above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2753 ( -51 or -0.4% )

The Pound is now in danger of much lower prices if buyers cannot hold this market here. We will be discussing this in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Tue 20:15 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Tue 20:30 – Construction PMI
Wed 20:30 – Services PMI

For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 and 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.

On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2868, we could see this market retest the key 1.2720 level. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622; and if downside momentum remains strong we could see a quick drop into 1.2480.

 

USD/JPY – 113.52 ( +61 or +0.54% )

The $/YEN continues to grind higher and this market should now be watched closely for any signs of weakness; as we gear up for a BIG move.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 11:00 – Average Cash Earnings

For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 112.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 113.87 before another pause; with the potential for a quick move into 114.08.

If we cannot hold above 112.68, we are likely to see a move down into 111.73. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 111.09, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 110.45.

 

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1222 ( +0 or +0.00% )

GOLD continues to sit at our key level of 1222. If this market cannot get going soon we could see a very strong move very soon…

For a move higher we must now see this market close above 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260.

If Gold cannot close above 1222, we will look for a move back down into 1206. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a bigger move down into 1187, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sharp move into 1170.