Weekly column: The unexpected stock market surge amid global conflict

Review

President Donald Trump announced he’s ending “all trade negotiations” with Canada because of a television ad opposing U.S. tariffs that he said misstated the facts and was aimed at influencing U.S. court decisions. The post on Trump’s social media site came Thursday night after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he aims to double his country’s exports to countries outside the U.S. because of the threat posed by Trump’s tariffs.

—Will Weissert, “Trump Says He’s Ending Trade Talks With Canada Over TV Ads,” Associated Press, October 24, 2025, www.apnews.com.

Analysts said the impact of blacklisting Russia’s biggest oil producers—Rosneft and Lukoil—would hinge on three things: how well they are enforced, the reaction of major markets in India and China, and whether Moscow can circumvent the measures as it has up to now. The new sanctions bring Washington and Europe into alignment in their pressure on Moscow for the first time since the start of the Trump administration.

—George Kantchev and Laurence Norman, “U.S. Oil Sanctions Strike at Russia’s Economic Lifeline,” Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2025.

It was a positive New Moon week for most global stock indices, with several ending the week at new all-time highs.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, record highs were notched in the Australian ASX, India’s NIFTY, and Japan’s Nikkei indices. China’s Shanghai stock exchange composite (SSE) soared to its highest level in 10 years. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong was up as well, but still shy of its all-time high made on October 2. As well as the U.S. stock markets are doing, they are being outperformed by several in Asia now.

In Europe, the Netherlands AEX and London FTSE made new all-time highs on Friday, October 24. Both Germany’s DAX and Zurich’s SMI indices were only modestly higher, with neither posting new highs.

The DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P all soared to record levels on Friday as well. Brazil’s Bovespa came close. But overall, the world shrugged off renewed tariff threats, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia, and a lingering government shutdown in the U.S. to march to new all-time highs.

In other markets, Gold and Silver did not fare so well last week. Although Gold did attain a new all-time peak at $4,398 on Monday, October 20, it fell to $4,021 just two days later, a loss of nearly $400, coming close to our call for a $400-700 decline due by the end of the year. Was that it, so quickly? Possible, but not likely. Silver recorded its all-time high the week before, on October 17, when it skyrocketed to 5377. By Wednesday, October 22, it had plummeted all the way back to 4682, a drop of nearly 13%. Bitcoin and Ethereum held steady last week after their multi-month lows the prior week. But Crude Oil garnered most of the headlines as it tested the $55.00 level, near its low of the past five years. However, when President Trump announced his plan to sanction Russia’s two top oil companies late last week, Crude Oil reversed sharply and rallied to a high of 62.59 on Friday, an upside gain of nearly 12%.

Short-term geocosmics

Annual inflation heated up slightly in September, but not as much as economists expected, giving the Federal Reserve a clear path for widely expected rate cuts heading into their remaining meetings this year. 

Consumer prices rose 3% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Friday, slightly hotter than August’s increase of 2.9% and the fastest pace since January.

—Konrad Putzier and Harriet Torry, “Inflation Edges Up, But Less Than Expected, to 3% Rate,” The Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2025, www.wsj.com,

All eyes in the coming week will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to cut interest rates even as the U.S. government shutdown continues. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the Fed Funds rate to 3.75-4.00%.

—Dow Jones Newswire staff, “Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed Expected to Cut Rates; U.S.-China Talks Eyed,” The Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2025, www.wsj.com.

We ended the New Moon in Scorpio week with the Sun square Pluto. This combination usually foreshadows things like a debt crisis or a government shutdown, where public service employees don’t get paid. In this current case in the U.S., several have even been fired.

Correction: The New Moon occurred at 28° 48′ Libra—right on the cusp—as the Sun was about to enter Scorpio (around 11:21 UTC on October 22). It marks the transition between Libra’s focus on balance and partnership, ushering in the deeper currents of Scorpio’s power and control.

Yet stock markets continue to rally. This may be associated with transiting Mars, co-ruler of Scorpio and currently transiting through Scorpio, which is a waxing trine (harmonious) aspect to Jupiter, the planet of optimism and hope. In fact, Mars is making a water grand trine that also brings into play Saturn and Neptune in Pisces. This may also be connected to the big reversal in Crude Oil prices last week, as both Jupiter and Neptune, plus the sign of Pisces, have rulership over Crude Oil. Unfortunately, U.S. government leaders are not meeting to end the shutdown at a time when this grand water trine suggests they could come to an agreement and end it. Pluto and Scorpio are adept at ending things like this. They’re also quite proficient at applying maximum pressure to force others to back down and compromise, as in the case of President Trump’s new pressures being put on Russia to end its brutal campaign against Ukraine.

These policies and decisions (or lack thereof) are – and will continue – affecting financial markets. Another factor affecting market prices is the slow return to rising inflation levels. They are creeping back up, and with the Fed set to lower its benchmark rate even lower this next week, plus renewed increases in the president’s tariff-as-weapons obsession. There is no sign of any attempt to counteract this newly rising trend. Saturn and Neptune retrograding back into Pisces may also be an inflationary correlation.

The following week presents greater geocosmic challenges in these market trends. On November 2, Venus will square Jupiter, followed by its square to Pluto on November 8. This is where credit (Venus) crunches with debt (Pluto), and reactions can get exaggerated (Jupiter). It may be difficult to come to a compromise in the government shutdown during that period, for Mercury turns retrograde the next day, November 9, which is usually not the best of times to sign an agreement because everything is not tidily wrapped up and ready for an informed decision to be made.

On top of that, Mars will be in a pressure-packed square with Uranus on November 4 as it leaves Scorpio and enters Sagittarius, just a couple of days before Uranus retrogrades out of Gemini and back into the financial sign of Taurus. There is a lot of unfinished business to take care of, but nobody is offering a clean slate that all parties can support. There just isn’t enough budging yet, with enough assurances demanded by all parties, to make everyone satisfied. The tension is likely to be mounting, and financial markets may react strongly, especially since the Mars/Uranus square is an indicator of TUMDI–the Trump Uranus Market Disruption Indicator. He has already exhibited many of the characteristics lately that would normally cause a sudden market selloff. But so far, the stock markets have been largely positive. It might be different in the first ten days of November as an unexpected event, threat, or not-so-subtle change in policy is announced.

Traders should expect the unexpected, then, accompanied by a sudden shift in trend in several markets. In terms of world hot spots, Mars in Sagittarius and Capricorn (November 4-January 23) often puts the spotlight on heightened conflicts in the Middle East around Israel. Natural calamities like earthquakes, high winds, and fires also cannot be ruled out. On a positive note, this combination can lead to inspiration and intellectual or scientific breakthroughs. But it would be wise to avoid dangerous situations and crazy people when possible. Tempers tend to run very hot, and irrational behavior may explode. Logic won’t work. Running fast will!