Analysis

Weekly column: Inflation, eclipses, and the fate of international markets

Review

 A key measure of U.S. inflation rose as expected in February, putting a spotlight on whether price growth will be cool enough this spring to justify an interest-rate cut by midyear… “It’s good to see something coming in in-line with expectations,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday… Fed officials last week reaffirmed their projections for three interest-rate cuts this year, though the timing of such cuts remains uncertain.

—Charley Grant and Nick Timiraos, “Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rose 2.5% in February,” Wall Street Journal Online, March 29, 2024.,

Excitable market analysts talk as if the main risks to the global economy are when and how much central banks will raise interest rates. A different danger came into view in Japan on Wednesday as the yen plunged to another multi-decade low against the dollar. The yen briefly sank to ¥151.97 per dollar, its lowest value in 34 years.

—Wall Street Editorial Board, “All Aboard the Foreign-Exchange Seesaw,” Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2024.

Financial markets continued to follow the robust and bullish Jupiter/Uranus path higher,.

New all-time highs were recorded on Thursday, March 28, in the stock indices of Australia (ASX), the Netherlands (AEX), and Germany (DAX). After an early week slide, rallies approached all-time highs with secondary tops in Switzerland (SMI), Japan (Nikkei), India (NIFTY), and the U.S. (DJIA and the S&P). London’s FTSE index had a strong week and is testing its all-time high of February 2023.

The big star last week was probably Gold, which soared to another new all-time high on Thursday, March 28, the last trading day of the holiday week. Silver also had a nice rally but fell short of its recent high for this year which was on March 21. The pattern was similar in Bitcoin, which made its all-time high on March 14 at 73,803. It then fell 17% to a low of 60,760 on March 20 of the prior week. But then it started another rally that so far has soared to a secondary high of 71,754 on March 27. Crude Oil also enjoyed a healthy rally last week, rising to 83.21 on March 28, its highest level since November 3.

Each of these markets—stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and Crude Oil—are still in the running for further gains going into the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction of April 20–21. However, with Mercury retrograde starting up on Monday, April 1, the path may not be a straight line.

Short-term geocosmics

When confidence in society and political institutions erodes, the appeal of gold and other precious commodities like diamonds rises as alternative stores of value that aren’t contingent on societal arrangements… Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hold a similar appeal, but they are far less tested, less understood and still subject to big regulatory risks…UBS pointed to rising gold purchases by central banks worldwide, which they said have reached the highest levels since the 1960s at more than 1,000 metric tons in each of the past two years. These bets by central banks could be seen as hedges against the dollar as a reserve currency.

—Aaron Back, “Gold Is Rallying. It Isn’t About Inflation This Time.” Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2024.

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday there is “no reason” to think the U.S. economy is close to a recession. “Growth is strong,” Powell said at a conference in San Francisco. “As I mentioned, the economy is in a good place. There is no reason to think the economy is in a recession or is at the edge of one.”

—Julia Shapiro, “Powell: ‘No Reason’ to Think Economy is Close to Recession,’ ” www.thehill.com, March 29, 2024.

Well, actually, there is one reason to think the U.S. economy may be nearing a recession.

We are in the middle of a powerful eclipse period, which means the Sun and Moon will conjoin the North or South Node of the Moon. In fact, the solar eclipse on April 8 will conjoin the Sun, Moon, Lunar North Node, and Chiron. It’s Chiron and the Lunar North Node that concern us. In the 11 cases in which Chiron and the Lunar North Node have conjoined since the Civil War, seven have coincided with recessions within 10 months. The previous time this conjunction occurred was on July 27, 2008, right in the middle of the Great Recession of December 2007-June 2009. The good news is that in most of those recessions, the Chiron/Lunar North Node conjunction happened during the recession, not before or after. In current times, this conjunction occurred on March 5, 2024, and so far, there has been no recession. However, there are at least two cases where the conjunction occurred outside of the recession by up to 10 months. So, there is still a reason to be concerned.

In the shorter term, the “Trickster” (Mercury retrograde) is about to start its version of March Madness on April Fool’s Day (April 1-26). The Mad Hatter, also a Trickster, would like this correspondence. Given the erratic and unpredictable nature of financial markets under the Trickster’s cycle, which also commences right in the middle of the lunar (March 25) and solar eclipse (April 8), anything is in play. Sometimes markets peak right into the Mercury retrograde date, +/- 4 trading days, and then sells off. If not, then they continue their trends until the midpoint of the retrograde cycle, which will be on April 14 (a Sunday) +/- one trading day.

Of special importance may be April 10, two days after the solar eclipse in Aries, when the powerful Mars/Saturn conjunction takes place. Mars rules Aries, so it may be a time of inclement weather affecting grain (and all food) prices and/or more saber-rattling in the warmongering regions of Russia and the Middle East. I know many Putin sympathizers think he is justified in his aggressions, given that nations on the border of Russia wish to join NATO, which he sees as a threat and a violation of past agreements following glasnost. However, NATO is not out to engage in war. It is a defensive alliance against military aggression and expansion toward its members, not a warmongering alliance out to attack Russia or anyone else. Trying to turn the narrative around to justify the violence, destruction, and kidnapping of children in Ukraine (and hostages in the U.S. and elsewhere) is an example of the potential distortion of the truth (propaganda) symbolized by Saturn (facts) in Pisces (misdirection, deception, blame). These two principles operate much more constructively on a transparent and truthful level whereby virtue and peace are held in high value. This trend of authoritarian rulers (Saturn) to mislead (Neptune in Pisces) may continue to build into 2026 +/– one year, when Saturn conjoins Neptune, ruler of Pisces, on February 20, 2026. And it’s not only in Russia and the Middle East where this trend toward more propaganda under the illusion of supposedly caring for one’s citizens is taking place.

In spite of all these attempts by some world leaders to create a narrative that evades truth and ignores the will of the people, many financial markets may continue to rally into the trio of Jupiter aspects on the horizon. These include the most powerful aspect of the year—Jupiter conjunct Uranus on April 20–21 followed by Jupiter sextile Neptune and trine Pluto on May 23-June 2.

However, after this season of financial and economic optimism and political appeasement, the mood may change as Jupiter enters a triple passage of a square aspect to Saturn, August 19, 2024–June 15, 2025. What once seemed to be a never-ending gravy train of profits, economic growth, and security may start to morph into signs that the patchwork of misdirection and false narratives is unraveling.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.


RELATED CONTENT

Loading ...



Copyright © 2024 FOREXSTREET S.L., All rights reserved.