Was the illiquidity of the August market unmasked on Wednesday
|Was the illiquidity of the August market unmasked on Wednesday?
Or is the bond market signalling more doom and gloom to come?
I think Asia traders are a bit shell-shocked by the extent of the carnage overnight and not sure what to do with themselves today. However, trade volumes speak louder than words and those volumes are screaming Bear.
Of course waking up to a sea of carnage while trying to formulate a day trading strategy, on paper no less, can be challenging at the best of times and while tempting to throw all caution to the wind and start selling the works, it's probably wiser to think this out a more quantified manner.
While the markets remain in full out bear mode, a good argument could be made about the markets irrational behaviour when it comes to trading trade war risk and by proxy global growth sentiment. Indeed, throughout this trade war malaise investor continue to wear the emotional attachment on their sleeves.
Hoping for the best on the policy front but positioning for the worst on the economic backdrop seems to be the flavour of the day.
Surely the world's central bankers are not going to allow President Trump tariff threats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory Not yet, anyway. Not while there's still some monetary firepower left in their arsenal
The Fed, now out of necessity alone will need to adjust policy much more profoundly than they expected. While the threat of addition tariffs will make Beijing more accommodative to easing as policymakers have numerous avenues and a high degree for flexibility to respond. Suggesting that mainland's accommodative policies including infrastructure, fiscal and monetary measures will be aggressively dialled up in coming months
Even as trade tension alternate between simmer and boil. A Pboc and Fed policy deluge could go a long way to establishing risk sentiment.
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