Wall Street Next Week: Financial astrology for the successful investor & trade
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Can a Santa Claus rally occur even if St. Nick has to wear a mask when he slides down chimneys?
HW: The week of December 7, if not sooner, markets should be ROCK&ROLL: Be prepared!!
Many analysts recommend sector rotation: 2020 winners will not necessarily be 2021 winners.
Be that as it may, we are ready for trading short again.
Aggressive investors will wait and watch to pounce on misunderstood wounded winners.
Regardless of your risk preferences, precious metals should shine this Fall!
MARKET WATCH
7/31 MOC: DJI 26377 SPX 3271 NAS 10745
2020 Highs: DJI 30015 SPX 3645 NAS 12205
VIX: 20 <> 22 +/-
OIL: 44<>46 +/-
Commodity Trading:
Gold + Astro Trading Buy on dips $2000 COMING AGAIN by or before Chinese New Year .
Silver Astro is mildly positive S1 22.50 S2 20. R1 24 R2 26
Copper 3.25+ Intermediate term target achieved.
Oil $44+ Intermediate term target achieved. Watch this week’s OPEC meeting Nov 30/Dec 1 action/inaction
KEY DATES: DECEMBER 7, 10, 14-16, 21, 28-31, January 4/5 20/21
DJIA: 29000 SUPPORT? 30000 RESISTANCE
SPX: 3558 PIVOT S1 3600 S2 3588 S3 3600 R1 3650
NASDAQ: 12229 PIVOT
GOLD: 1775/185 DUAL PIVOTS
SILVER: 22.50 SUPORT? 26 RESISTANCE
OIL: 40 SUPPORT 46 OR 50 RESISTANCE
COPPER: 3.40 PIVOT 3.15 SUPPORT R1 3.40 R2 3.50
US 10 year WATCH +/-
CNY WATCH +/- 6.66 6.50 SUPPORT?
DXY 91 SUPPORT R1 94
VIX 20 SUPPORT R1 22 R2 24 R 30
2020 CLOSE:
2019 CLOSE: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 & NASDAQ 8823
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1695.
Reduce Risk and Focus on Capital Preservation:
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. https://www.usatoday.com/
HW: CHWY was one of our top conservative 2020 picks due to both its sector membership and company fundamentals.
But like many with the wind in its sails, it overvalued and booking or protecting profits soon is our advice.
SELL EVERYTHING YOU DON’T WANT TO OWN IN 2021 H1 2020
Prepare a list of stocks to buy AFTER a correction &/or to take advantage of yearend tax selling.
If this is not upcoming soon, then we will remain highly liquid and largely continue to protect our YTD profits.
Otherwise, we plan to only selectively add stocks in our favorite sectors e.g. precious metals, mining and entertainment.
Favorite Q1 2021 Sectors:
Entertainment, Mining, Safety & Security & Technology (Undervalued & Highly Scalable)
Currently we are mostly watching Select Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) due to potential future political risks
Stock selection is important. Whenever possible, we prefer to recommend stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets & growing dividends.
Choose your favorite stocks and patiently bid for them.
- Investor Gold Price Insurance
HW: “Our last unfilled PM investing buy Silver 22.50
Any more gold or silver buying before yearend will be short term trading as fully allocated
Re: Silver stocks we know many good choices.
Today our silver stock buys:
MAG SILVER (MAG) &
ALEXCO RESOURCES (AXU)
Bitcoin S1 1650 S2 1750”
Many gold bugs believe the latest correction in gold is a great opportunity to add to long-term positions in gold –
I agree if only as a portfolio hedge given FV gold currently only $1695 AG $22.
- Despite being overvalued, with strong astro this Fall, owning gold and silver should well reward investors.
Given newbie gold investors have little knowledge of the industry and many are accustomed to Tech valuations, is there an upper limit to Gold or Silver pricing? Maybe not!
Last week Gold fell into a new trading range: 1775 -1850.
Conservative investors can accept $2200-2300, while more aggressive gold and silver bugs previously replaced their previous 2000+ gold targets with 2500-3000+; silver $30 to $50.
Silver $22.50 support with $30 overhead resistance. Many analysts still expect $30 Silver & 2000 gold by 2021 Metal Ox Chinese New Year.
There are so many good buys in the precious metal space depending on your time frame & risk/reward desires - the trend is MOST definitely your friend!
See WSNW & recent AFUND luncheons, conferences & Webinars [Past Webinars have been posted on our Youtube channel] for some investing ideas that may be nicely profitable upcoming Fall/Winter.
Gold: Fundamentally Indian & Chinese demand should now grow with cheaper gold prices coupled with high global investor interest.
Please note gold is under favorable astrological influences Q4 2020.
Longtime Gold bugs are happy that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party:
In addition, many major brokerage houses have $2000+ price targets into 2021.
Given it is under allocated by most investment programs, this gives it even more potential room to run, especially if/when inflation fears resurface &/or if/with a falling US dollar!
We believe gold & silver valuations will largely sport well above Fair Value into the Year of the White Metal Ox (2021).
Just as they were undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time.
While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall & Winter, the astro is very positive for gold.
Hence we recommend a full and over weighted precious metals portfolio allocation.
However, we advise long term precious metal investors to also pay attention to stock selection.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
- Once again some investors are hedging record equity prices by buying gold.
- Low real interest rates is very positive for gold as well as low global bond yields makes gold an attractive alternative risk mitigation hedge.
Gold FV $1695= Commodity FV: 1600 + Currency FV: 1680 + Inflation Metal FV: 1600 + Crisis FV: 1900.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2020 with occasional hedging & profit taking.
Note: Our current Fair Value for Silver is $22.
4.Starting soon, we plan on adding a new feature: SEASONED SPECULATOR. This will generally be a very high risk/high reward market pick. These picks are for speculative allocation, recommended to be bought in groups of 5 to 10 stocks. Position size 10%-20% of your speculative allocation, i.e. “money you can afford to lose without altering your life style.”
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6.“There’s a reality setting in that while the vaccine will start being distributed fairly quickly, the virus isn’t going away quickly and therefore the timeline for economic improvements is getting pushed out.”
Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategists, Inverness Counsel
HW: Yes that is reality but hardly yet built into current market euphoria.
"As soon as prices [gold] touched below the key $1,800 level, it triggered a sell-off. It is probable that prices might test the $1,750 level given we have a strong fundamental reason like the vaccine."
Craig Erlam, analyst, OANDA
HW: Possible, but not necessarily probable; However, it may shake out some weak hands.
“News that the Trump administration may clamp down on crypto might have been a trigger for the drop. But any asset that rallies 75% in 2 months and 260% from the March lows is allowed to undergo a correction.”
Antoni Trenchev, managing partner, Nexo
HW: It is the not the small 20-30% drops but the 50 to 80% ones that sometimes get the concerned attention of crypto-crazies.
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