Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast: A better market mood fell short of boosting the pair

USD/JPY Current Price: 107.26

  • The Bank of Japan boosted its support program to 110 trillion yen.
  • US Retail Sales surged by 17.7% in May, beating the market’s expectations.
  • USD/JPY at risk of falling after repeatedly failing to rally above a Fibonacci resistance.

The USD/JPY pair is ending the American session around 107.30, unchanged for a second consecutive day. The pair advanced during the Asian session to 107.64, as local share markets got boosted by news indicating that the Fed would include corporate bonds to its buying program. Bulls, however, were not interested and quickly left the pair, holding around the mentioned level, in spite of US indexes extending their rally. Positive news, related to a coronavirus treatment and upbeat US Retail Sales, overshadowed concerns about a second wave of coronavirus contagions in the US and a less aggressive Fed.

The Bank of Japan had a monetary policy meeting, and, as widely expected, rates were left unchanged.  Policymakers, however, decided to further boost its support program to 110 trillion yen, which fell short of triggering some action across the board. Japan will publish this Wednesday its May Merchandise Trade Balance, expected to post a deficit of ¥970.8 B

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair continues to offer a neutral stance in the short-term, although the risk remains skewed to the downside, as it’s unable to advance beyond the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily decline. The 4-hour chart shows that a flat 200 SMA caps the upside, while a mild-bullish 20 SMA contains slides. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned south, currently hovering around their mid-lines.

Support levels: 106.95 106.60 106.25

Resistance levels: 107.80 108.20 108.50  

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

 

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