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Analysis

USD/JPY climbs after BoJ bond move – Can it break 145.00?

  • USDJPY finds resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci.

  • Next crucial barrier around 145.00.

  • Stochastics move up.

USDJPY had an interesting rebound off the 142.00 support level as Japanese officials decided to intervene in the bond market, sending the pair up to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 158.86 to 139.85 at 144.35. 

From a technical standpoint, the RSI is holding near the neutral threshold of 50, while the stochastics are rising toward the 80 level. 

If the market successfully overcomes the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 144.80, which found strong resistance earlier today, the price will need to fight with the 50-day SMA at 145.40. Higher, the 38.2% Fibonacci at 147.17 and the descending trend line could act as a turning point for the broader outlook

Alternatively, a fall beneath the 142.00 psychological mark would increase downside speculation, reaching the seven-month low of 139.85 ahead of the 200-weekly SMA at 138.70, changing the bias to strongly bearish. 

All in all, USDJPY has been in a negative structure since January and only a decisive rally above the 200-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci may shift the picture to bullish in the short-term. 

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