USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 12-16
|The Canadian dollar continues to improve, as USD/CAD dropped 270 points for a second straight week. This week is quiet, with only three indicators. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
In the US, key economic indicators continue to impress. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped and easily beating the estimate. In Canada, the BoC kept rates at 0.50% and Building Permits sparkled with a gain of 8.7%.
Updates:
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Dec 12, 8:59: Oil makes big break higher – CAD follows: It finally happened: WTI Crude Oil made a real break above the double-top around $52 and is settling at levels...
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Dec 12, 0:43: The week ahead: All about the Federal Reserve [Video]: The pound enjoyed a rally on hopes for a soft Brexit, but the level of uncertainty is extremely elevated with...
USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it.
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Manufacturing Sales: Thursday, 13:30. The week starts with this key indicator. In September, Manufacturing Sales slipped to 0.3%, but this beat the estimate of -0.2%. The markets are expecting a stronger gain of 0.7% in October.
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BoC Financial System Review: Thursday, 15:30. This minor release is released twice a year. Analysts will be combing through the report, looking for insights into future monetary policy. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will follow up with a press conference.
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Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 13:30. This indicator is closely linked to currency demand. The indicator dipped to C$11.77 billion, short of the estimate of C$12.23 billion. The indicator is expected to climb to C$12.35 billion.
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3326 and quickly touched a high of 1.3349. The pair then reversed directions, sliding to a low of 1.3148, as support held firm at 1.3124. USD/CAD closed the week at the round number of 1.3153.
Technical lines, from top to bottom
We start with resistance at 1.3551.
1.3433 was the high point in October.
1.3351 is next.
1.3219 is an immediate resistance line.
1.3124 is a weak support line which could break this week.
1.3003 is protecting the symbolic 1.30 level. It was last tested in mid-October.
1.2922 is next.
1.2804 is the final support line for now.
I am neutral on USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar has rebounded sharply thanks to stronger oil prices. With OPEC and non-OPEC countries signing a deal on Saturday, this currency could continue to move upwards. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely raise rates this week for the first time since December, so the greenback could get a boost.
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