US inflation and jobless claims in focus as UK data looms

Global markets remain driven by softer US inflation data, which has weighed on the US dollar amid rising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Adding to the dollar’s pressure, optimistic headlines around a US-China trade agreement have lifted global risk sentiment.

United States – Dollar falls on weak inflation

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the key 99.00 support level, hitting its lowest point in several days as Treasury yields declined.

Today’s spotlight:

• Producer Price Index (PPI).
• Weekly Jobless Claims.

These data points will be critical in confirming the inflation and labor market trajectory.

Continued softness = stronger case for a Fed rate cut in September = more downside for the dollar.

Outlook:

A weaker-than-expected reading could push DXY below 98.70, targeting 98.30 next.

EUR/USD – Gains extend toward key resistance

The euro continued to gain against the dollar, approaching the psychological 1.1500 barrier, buoyed by ongoing USD weakness.

Focus shifts to upcoming ECB speakers:

• Isabel Schnabel
• Luis de Guindos
• Frank Elderson

Outlook:

A decisive break above 1.1500 could open the door toward 1.1560.

GBP/USD – All eyes on UK macro data

Sterling remained resilient above 1.3500 following a rebound from Tuesday’s dip, with a heavy UK data docket ahead:

Key releases include:

• Monthly GDP
• Industrial & Manufacturing Production
• Trade Balance
• NIESR GDP Estimate
• RICS House Price Index

Outlook:

• Positive data → push toward 1.3580–1.3620
• Weak data → downside risk toward 1.3450

USD/JPY – Struggling to sustain gains

The pair reversed Tuesday’s gains, dropping back toward 144.30.

Markets await:

• BSI Manufacturing Index
• Foreign bond investment data

Outlook:

Unless demand for USD recovers, bearish momentum could drag the pair toward 143.80.

AUD/USD – Yearly highs amid volatility

The Aussie climbed to a new 2025 high near 0.6550 before pulling back toward the 0.6500 mark.

Key drivers ahead:

• Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations.
• Speech from RBA Governor Jacobs.

Outlook:

Bullish momentum remains intact unless 0.6480 is broken.

Oil (WTI) – Sharp rise on trade optimism

West Texas Intermediate crude surged above $68.00, reaching a two-month high.

Supportive catalysts:

• Progress in US-China trade talks.
• Drop in US inventories per latest reports.

Outlook:

Stability above $68.00 could pave the way for a move toward $69.20–70.00.

Gold – Rally continues on Dollar weakness

Gold climbed steadily to hit a multi-day high near $3360/oz, supported by:

• Safe-haven flows.
• USD softness.
• Inflation concerns.

Outlook:

A confirmed break above $3365 could trigger a move toward $3385–3400.

Silver – Testing key support level

Silver pulled back sharply toward the $36.00 mark, now testing a significant technical support zone.

Outlook:

• A break below $36.00 opens downside toward $35.20.
• A bounce may send prices back to $37.00.

Client trade ideas for today

Asset	Trade Idea	Rationale
EUR/USD	Buy on break above 1.1500	Ongoing USD weakness, ECB optimism
GBP/USD	Conditional buy on positive data	Busy UK data day, upside potential
USD/JPY	Sell from 144.80 (SL: 145.30)	Dollar weakness, safe-haven yen demand
XAU/USD	Buy above 3365	Weak USD, inflation concerns
WTI Crude	Buy from 67.80	Trade optimism, bullish momentum
AUD/USD	Buy from 0.6480	Inflation outlook, positive sentiment

(This article was written by the author with assistance from language generation tools to support structure and clarity. All insights and opinions are entirely the author’s own.)