United States: A "K-shaped" investment
|Investment in the digital sector, most recently driven by the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), has become a major driver of US growth.
In the first half of 2025, private fixed investment in adjacent categories accounted for 40% of GDP growth (y/y), while its share of GDP was only 9%. Since the end of 2022, investment in data centres and IT equipment has grown by 195% and 61%, respectively. At the same time, investment in non-AI-adjacent components has contracted (see chart). As a result, the US private-investment dynamics are occurring within a “K-shaped” economy. The component that is growing (AI, in this case) is supporting part of the investment and growth potential, but this is adversely affecting the components at the same time. This knock-on effect may be linked to the high cost of AI investments.
US private fixed investment in GDP (volume)
However, investment in AI is particularly import-intensive, which reduces its direct positive impact on growth.
During the first three quarters of 2025, the US trade deficit in digital-related goods widened significantly, rising to USD 84 billion from USD 59 billion in 2024 (quarterly average, in nominal terms). Furthermore, this deficit continued to widen throughout the year, unlike the goods trade deficit as a whole, revealing a specific dynamic for these products. Therefore, it’s not just Americans that are winning out from AI. Indeed, these imports are supporting global trade dynamics and, therefore, growth in the rest of the world, particularly in Asian countries.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.