Analysis

UK retail sales struggled to recover in September

  • European equity markets temporary lost ground during the ECB's press conference but are now back near opening levels. US stocks opened 0.3% lower. Verizon, the largest US telecoms group by customers, posted mixed quarterly results, sending the shares falling in early trading.

  • The ECB kept rates on hold today. At the press conference, ECB Draghi prepared investors and markets that communication at the December meeting will shape monetary policy in the weeks/months ahead. He added that extraordinary policies can't exist forever.

  • UK retail sales struggled to recover in September, recording no growth M/M following a 0.1% drop in August. However, British retail sales recorded their strongest quarter of growth since late 2014 in the three months to September. Warm weather and higher prices dented demand for new clothing towards the end of the period.

  • Germany's DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce has raised its 2016 growth forecast for Europe's largest economy to 1.9% from a previous estimate of 1.5%, but said the longer‐term outlook was clouded.

  • Turkey's central bank has opted to leave its interest rates unchanged this month, citing the recent drop in the lira as a key input into its decision. In a surprise decision, policymakers opted to keep their overnight lending rate (8.25%), benchmark repo (7.5%) and overnight borrowing rate (7.25%) all on hold this month.

  • Pushing back the Bank of Japan's forecast of when it will meet its 2% inflation target does not necessarily mean the central bank will ease monetary policy, board member Takako Masai said according to an interview with Jiji news agency.

  • US eco data printed mixed. The Philly Fed Business Outlook fell back less than expected in October (from 12.8 to 9.7) following the impressive surge in September. US weekly jobless claims remain near historically low levels, but unexpectedly increased from 247k to 260k.

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