Trade deal = higher rates and stronger SEK
|Market movers today
In the US focus today is on the US Michigan consumer sentiment indicator, which will give us more details about the activity in the US service sector and private consumption growth on the back of the mixed signals we received from the strong ISM non-manufacturing and weak PMI services print, respectively.
The day will also give us details about how hard the Chinese export sector has been hit by the trade war with the US and the global slowdown from the trade balance figures for October. We expect exports to still look soft but not as weak as in the beginning of 2019. Markets will also keep a close eye on any trade headlines.
In Sweden, the September consumption indicator is due out, giving us more clues about where Q3 GDP growth is going to print.
Selected market news
Risk appetite amid 'good news' regarding trade talks has infused optimism to stock markets and was the key driver for both FX and fixed income markets yesterday.
There was a significant sell-off in the European and US fixed income markets and 10Y German government bond yields have now risen almost 50bp from the low levels seen in August, while the 2Y German government bond has risen some 30bp since August. This is despite the ECB cutting rates and introducing QE between August and now.
In the FX-markets the SEK, CAD, AUD and NZD have been winners over the past month in the equity rally amid market hopes of a cyclical turn but over the last week strong Norwegian data alongside higher gas and oil prices have brought the NOK into the good company. On the other hand, the JPY and CHF have underperformed.
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