Analysis

Oil prices rise as investors bet tight supply

The USDINR pair made a gap down opening at 74.36 levels and traded in the range of 74.36-74.54 with an upside bias. The pair finally closed the day at 74.46 levels. The rupee fell against the dollar today tracking a weak yuan because Chinese companies listed in the US suffered sharp losses due to concerns over tightening regulations for companies after China issued new directives for online platforms.

The rupee is likely to have closely tracked the Chinese unit, which fell 0.3% to 6.50 a dollar during the day. Given that China is one of India's largest trading partners, a weak yuan may widen India's trade deficit. Weakness in domestic benchmark indices also dampened sentiment for the Indian unit. Further, the rupee came under pressure after a big state-owned bank stepped in to absorb dollar inflows for initial public offers of Indian companies. On an annualized basis, a premium on the one-year, exact-period dollar/rupee contract fell to 4.41%, against 4.46% on Monday.

Most Asian currencies were up against the dollar today because the US unit fell globally as investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve's meeting starting today for cues on any tapering of monetary stimulus. The new 10-year G-Sec benchmark 06.10 GS 2031 closed the day at 6.1784% levels. The Reserve Bank of India set the reference rate for USDINR at 74.41 levels. Oil prices rise as investors bet tight supply and rising vaccination rates will help offset any impact on demand from surging COVID-19 cases worldwide.

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