Analysis

The ECB is in no hurry to talk about tapering

  • European stock markets trade mixed near opening levels in a session devoid of eco releases. US stock markets opened in similar, lacklustre, vein.

  • "Now is not yet the time" to tighten monetary policy, BoE governor Carney said in his delayed Mansion House speech, in comments that weighted on sterling. The speech is the governor's first public appearance since three members of the Bank's currently eight‐person monetary policy committee voted to raise interest rates last week.

  • Boston Fed Rosengren said that persistently low interest rates mean monetary policy will be less capable of fighting off future financial shocks and recessions. Vice‐Chair Fischer warned that low rates may have led to "high" house prices.

  • The Czech central bank may put off raising interest rates to beyond the third quarter if the crown keeps strengthening at the pace seen in recent weeks, bank board member Marek Mora said.

  • The Germany economy is firing on all cylinders, according to the country's influential Ifo think‐tank, which has delivered a healthy bump to its GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone's largest economy over the next year (1.8% for 2017 & 2% for 2018), describing it as "strong and stable".

  • Hungary's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.9% and decided to lower its cap on three‐month deposits to 300 billion forints by the end of September from 500 billion at the end of June. The bank also reiterated that it would be ready to loosen monetary conditions further via unconventional tools if needed.

  • Oil dropped to the lowest in seven months (Brent crude <$46/barrel) amid a revival in output from Libya and rising volumes of fuel held in floating storage. Tonight and tomorrow, weekly inventory data are scheduled for release.

  • The ECB is in no hurry to talk about tapering, though it has just six months of its current bond‐buying program left. Officials see no need to make a decision until at least September, people familiar to the issue said. That means plans for 2018 may be disclosed only at the October meeting or even in December.

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