Important data releases for Fed and ECB
|Market movers ahead
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In the US, we have several important data releases including PCE inflation, which could be important for the Fed's decision on whether to hike soon or not. The week will also be heavy in terms of Fed communication as nine FOMC members are scheduled to speak.
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Likewise in the euro area, there are some important data releases for the ECB to follow. Private sector lending should confirm Draghi's view that the monetary transmission ‘has never worked better', while inflation should rise but this is due to the higher oil price.
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In the Scandies there are a lot of data releases to follow, including Norwegian and Danish unemployment, Swedish and Norwegian retail sales, Danish confidence for industry and Swedish business confidence.
Global macro and market themes
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Political uncertainty, monetary/fiscal policies and the economic cycle will be the driving market forces in the autumn.
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Most US observers appear convinced that Clinton will win the election; we expect elevated political uncertainty will prevail on both sides of the Atlantic.
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Major central banks will maintain an ultra-loose policy stance while the cycle is heading lower led by the US.
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Global interest rates to stay low; the USD to weaken medium term.
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Equities are a sell on rallies led by the softer US cycle and weak earnings.
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