S&P 500 futures defend 6.274 pivot ahead of Fed minutes – London – New York playbook
|S&P 500 Futures V-Recovery Complete: After the low at 4,877, ESU2025 has surged back into the 6,279–6,300 supply zone.
Macro Drivers:
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Fed Minutes Due Tomorrow: Market positioning is light ahead of potential guidance on rate-pause.
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U.S. ISM Services & Jobs Data: May print could stoke further volatility if above-consensus.
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Options Expiry (OPEX) This Week: Gamma and pin‐risk around 6,300–6,350 may amplify moves.
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Volume Profile Note: The overnight volume node, located around 6,265–6,274, has acted as a rotational magnet throughout Asia, heading into the London session.
Structure and levels to watch
Critical Support Band - 6,265 – 6,274 - Asian session held here twice; micro-POC.
Centre Pivots - 6,224/6,305 - 3-session anchors; flips guide bias.
Immediate Upside Targets - 6,288 → 6,305 mid-range pivots.
Extension Zones - 6,324 → 6,366.
Failure Triggers - 6,224 ↓ 6,243 - Reclaim of support → fresh longs.
Playbook
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Above 6,274 Holds (Bullish Path):
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Entry: On 3 min/H1 confirm (higher-low) above 6,274.
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Targets:
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T1: 6,288 (overnight high).
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T2: 6,305 (session pivot).
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T3: 6,324 (weekly VWAP confluence).
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Stops: Below 6,265 (node low).
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Failure of 6,274 (Bearish Path):
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Entry: 3 min breakdown close below 6,274.
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Targets:
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T1: 6,265 (node low).
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T2: 6,243 (prior session low).
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T3: 6,224 (multi-day pivot).
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Stops: Above 6,288 (overnight swing).
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Re-Entry at Lower Pivots:
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If price retraces to 6,243–6,224 and holds, look for long setups targeting a re-test of 6,274. Use H1 reversal bars for confirmation.
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Risk & Money Management:
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Position Sizing: Scale in with 50% size and add confirmation.
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Volatility Buffer: Adjust stops for expected 10–12 tick 3 min ATR.
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Overnight vs. Day: Trim or hedge ahead of Fed minutes.
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This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Futures trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making any trading decisions.
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