Silver supply tightens as inflation and monetary shifts loom [Video]
|Mike Maharrey of the Money Metals Podcast sat down with David Morgan, CEO of The Morgan Report and author of The Silver Manifesto, to discuss the state of the silver and gold markets, inflation, central banks, and the future of global financial systems.
Silver consolidation near $40
Silver briefly touched $40/oz before consolidating around $38. Morgan welcomed this “stair-step” pattern, arguing it’s healthier than a parabolic surge. He expects sideways movement through summer, with potential breakout momentum after Labor Day (Sept. 22) or sooner if geopolitical shocks occur.
Industrial demand could become the catalyst. With deficits persisting for 3–4 years, Morgan highlighted that only about 1.3 billion ounces exist in bar form, and roughly 600 million ounces are already locked in ETFs. Since industry consumes ~600 million ounces annually, the market effectively has just one year of above-ground supply in commercial bars.
Gold demand and shifts in Asia
zed central bank buying as the top factor supporting gold.
In Asia, wealthier households are pivoting more toward gold than silver, while India shows a marked shift from jewelry to bars, coins, and ETFs. He noted cultural differences in jewelry premiums—Western buyers often pay 100–300% premiums.
Whereas in Asia, jewelry is closer to melt value.
Inflation pressures hidden in plain sight
Morgan blasted official CPI measures, calling them “CP-lie,” since food and energy are excluded. Diesel in his area rose nearly $1 in a month (a 20–25% increase), while food and rent continue to surge.
He noted widespread financial stress: bankruptcies among U.S. retailers and restaurants, shrinking corporate activity, and individuals working multiple jobs yet still unable to cover basics.
Meanwhile, M2 money supply is expanding again—“inflation by definition,” Maharrey observed. The PPI showed over 1% monthly gains in service prices, suggesting pressures far beyond tariffs. Morgan linked this to broader supply chain fragility, de-dollarization trends, and BRICS trade shifts.
Fed policy and bond market stress
Looking ahead, Morgan warned that a potential Fed rate cut in September could backfire. Cutting too soon risks a dollar selloff and surging commodities, while holding steady could unsettle bonds. Either way, Treasury markets—long billed as the world’s “safest”—are showing stress and volatility.
ISO 20022 and the “end game” system
Morgan spotlighted ISO 20022, the new global standard replacing SWIFT.
Regardless of whether transactions use dollars, yuan, rupees, CBDCs, or even gold, all payments ultimately clear through central banks. He views this as evidence that global elites are preparing for a reset, possibly involving digital currencies, tokenized assets, and even biometric payment systems already tested in China.
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