Prime Minister May's future is in European hands
|The European Union will have to decide how much to help Prime Minister May.
If Brussels does not bend on the backstop May will lose the Democratic Unionists of Northern Ireland and eventually a confidence vote in Parliament. A general election opens the door to months of turmoil with a crippled government in charge and the looming exit of March 29th.
Put it another way. What is in the EU's best interest? Is it the relatively orderly exit of May's deal or the potential economic turmoil of a lost Parliamentary confidence vote and a general election or second referendum?
The impact on the shaky EU economy of emergency planning for a clean Brexit and the influence on business of what must become an increasingly unsettled political and economic atmosphere in the UK would likely precipitate a recession.
Problems abound on the continent. In France, President Macron's approval rating is below 25% despite having surrendered to street protests over his fuel tax. Italy has an anti-establishment coalition in a budget dispute with the EU Commission that Rome is winning. Germany's Angela Merkel lingers but the energy and the issues belong to the opposition. The governments of Poland and Hungary and their electorates disagree vehemently with EU immigration policy.
If Brexit leads to a recession in the EU the losers will be the old-line pro-European Union parties and their leaders in Germany, France and elsewhere. The EU Commission will be discredited as a political force.
The winners will be the euro-skeptics already on hand everywhere and waiting for their chance.
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