Poor start of the year for car registrations in CEE
|On the radar
- Today, Hungarian central bank holds a rate setting meeting with interest rate decision scheduled for 2 PM CET.
- At 11 AM CET Croatia releases detailed inflation for January.
- Poland will publish unemployment rate.
- Real retail sales in Poland in January grew by 4.4% y/y.
- Unemployment rate in Slovenia in 4Q25 landed at 4.1%.
- Producer prices in Sebria stagnated in January.
Economic developments
Passenger car registrations across the CEE region started 2026 on a weak footing, with most countries recording year on year declines. Within the region, only Slovenia experienced growth in car registrations in January 2026. Croatia, Czechia, Hungary and Poland saw moderate drops in January (roughly between –7% and –10% y/y). Furthermore, Slovakia experienced bigger decline with registrations down around –15% y/y, pointing to continued softness in durable goods demand. Finally, Romania stands out as a major outlier, with a sharp decline of more than –30% y/y, far steeper than in any other country shown. This exceptional contraction is consistent with the macroeconomic environment, where fiscal consolidation measures implemented in mid-2025 have materially affected household disposable income and private consumption. All in all, in January 2026 car registration in the region dropped by -11.8% y/y on average, far more than the EU average at -3.9% y/y. In the EU, the battery electric car market share reached 19.3%, highlighting the continued potential for further growth.
Market movements
Today, Hungarian central bank holds rate setting meeting. As we need to pick the side, we stick to stability of rates in February. If interest rate cut arrives today, it would not surprise us, however, given recent inflation development. It may prove to be a close call at the end. EURHUF moved slightly down to 379 before the central bank’s decision. EURCZK and EURPLN remained unchanged at the beginning of the week. Romania was active on the bond market on Monday and sold RON 863 million of bonds maturing in 2033. Government papers were priced to yield 6.28%.
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