Nordic outlook – Normalising economies despite the noise
|Highlights
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We expect moderately higher growth in Europe including the Nordic countries and slightly lower growth in the US, as interest rates, inflation and wage growth normalise.
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Higher tariffs in the US and elsewhere are unlikely to change the economic outlook much in the short run, even if they have serious consequences for individual companies.
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Aggressive trade policies and higher geopolitical tension and uncertainty are negative factors in the longer run.
Global
We forecast normalisation in rates of growth, interest, inflation and unemployment over the coming years in many countries as economies are currently reasonably balanced and barring any big chocks. Political uncertainty is high with many question marks regarding the new US administration and ongoing wars, conflicts and geopolitical tensions. We see these factors as mostly affecting the longer-term economic outlook, but there could also be short-run effects. This includes the prospect of US tariffs and more general trade wars, which should have very limited implications for global demand in the short run but could well undermine growth in the longer term.
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