News tsunami cometh

USD: Mar '26 is Down at 96.575.  

Energies: Mar '26 Crude is Up at 65.36.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 4 ticks and trading at 116.19.

Indices: The Mar '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 32 ticks Higher and trading at 6969.00

Gold: The Feb'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 5129.70

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Higher.  Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the London exchange.

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• FOMC Member Schmid at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
• FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 10:15 AM EST. This is Major.
• Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• 10 Year Bond Auction Starts at 1 PM EST. This is Major.
• Federal Budget Balance is out at 2 PM EST. This is Major.
• FOMC Member Hammack Speaks at 4 PM EST This is not Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no economic news to speak of.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Mar 26 - 2/10/26

Dow - Mar 2026- 2/10/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias, and the Dow did close 58 points Higher, but the other indices closed Lower.  So, in essence we had a Mixed market with a mixed close.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Today we have a virtual tsunami in terms of economic news as we have about 10 eco news reports to deal with.   Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?