Is oil flashing a warning sign?
|Yes, and here are the reasons. Oil markets are sensing tensions around slowing global growth, an easing of the oil supply crunch, and an uncertain trajectory for China as it grapples with a Chine Covid zero policy.
Slowing global growth
If global growth continues to slow and a US recession is ahead that will reduce demand for oil. Although a US recession is not a ‘done deal’ Jerome Powell stated at the Semi-Annual testimony that it was a ‘possibility’. The lingering fear is that one of the consequences of the Fed fighting inflation so resolutely will be a sharp slow down in US growth that prompts a recession.
Easing oil supply crunch
There are some beliefs in the market that China and India are purchasing more Russian oil than the US previously believed. This takes some of the pressure off the oil market and can allow some of the bullish pressure to dissipate.
China’s Zero COVID policy
In case you are confused as to why China is holding onto its COVID Zero plan then you can read the good reasons here. However, this still means that If new infections flare up in China that demand can rapidly be reduced, further weakening oil prices So, there are the main reasons that oil prices have been pushed lower. However, traders should be aware that oil future markets remain in backwardation as ongoing supply issues can mean dip buyers step back into steep oil declines. So, for now, oil is a key market to watch as a barometer for global recession fears as central banks embark on a fast tightening trajectory.
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