How to trade the US Non-Farm Payrolls with EUR/USD
|- The US NFP is one of the most market-moving events, and wages remain in the limelight.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The EURUSD moved, on average, 28 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours.
Tradeable figure: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
Buying EUR/USD Scenario
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Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.23 deviation (0.089) [BUY Pair]
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Key Resistance Level: 1.1695
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.23 or less(0.089 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 54 pips in the first 15 minutes and 105 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.1660 was a peak on Wednesday. Next up is1.1695 last seen on Friday and further to the upside 1.1735 was the high point in late August.
Selling EUR/USD Scenario
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Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.98 deviation (0.28 ) [SELL Pair]
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Key Support Level: 1.1630
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.98 or higher(0.28 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 52 pips in the first 15 minutes and 90 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.1630 held the pair down early in the week. The next awaits at 1.1580 after serving as support late in August. 1.1530 is already a substantial level after halting the pair's decline twice: a double bottom.
EUR/USD Levels on the Chart
More data
The Non-Farm Payrolls is often dubbed the "king of forex indicators." The focus moved away from the headline figure to average earnings. Wages rose by 0.3% in July, meeting expectations. Will the robust pace continue?
More: Nonfarm Payrolls preview: too much trouble somewhere else
In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 28 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
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