Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD focuses on US Nonfarm Payrolls and weekly close
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UPGRADE- Gold price looks vulnerable below $3,300, on track for another weekly loss on Friday.
- The US Dollar flirts with two-month highs as fresh US tariffs rattle markets.
- Gold price holds 100-day SMA support at $3,270, but not for long as technicals stay bearish.
Gold price is consolidating weekly losses while hanging close to monthly lows of $3,268 early Friday, awaiting a flurry of high-impact US data flow, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
Will Gold price see a big sell-off on US Nonfarm Payrolls data?
Markets remain risk-averse heading into the weekend, taking account of the fresh tariffs hit by US President Donald Trump on the August 1 deadline day this Friday.
Late Thursday, Trump announced minimum global tariff rates at 10%, while increasing levies on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
The president slapped a 39% tariff rate on imports from Switzerland. However, he gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal.
The round of fresh tariff announcements sag investors’ confidence once again, as they flock to safety once again in the US Dollar (USD).
Fresh tariff concerns combined with the hawkish hold decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week continue to power the USD rally against its major currency rivals, keeping Gold price languishing in monthly troughs.
Attention now turns to the all-important US labor market report, with NFP data closely monitored for fresh hints on the timing of the next interest rate cut this year.
Markets are pricing in less than a 50% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, the US economy is expected to add 110,000 jobs in July after reporting a decent 147,000 growth in June. The Unemployment Rate is seen ticking a tad higher to 4.2% in July from 4.1% prior.
A print below the 100,000 level and a rise in the Unemployment Rate could signal signs of a weakening labor market, pushing back against the renewed hawkish Fed expectations and weighing on the Greenback. In such a scenario, Gold price could see a fresh recovery toward $3,400.
However, a headline NFP surprise above 150,000 could bolster the ongoing USD advance at the expense of the bright metal. Strong US jobs data will likely rule out bets for two Fed rate cuts this year.
Gold traders will pay close attention to the developments on the trade front and speeches from Fed policymakers, as they return from the ‘blackout period.’
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
With the Bear Cross still in play and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking below the midline, downside bias remains intact for Gold price.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pierced through the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, validating a Bear Cross.
Therefore, a weekly closing below the critical support of the 100-day SMA at $3,270 is waited for a fresh downtrend toward the June 30 low of $3,248.
The line in the sand for Gold buyers is at the May 20 low of $3,205.
Conversely, any recovery attempts will need acceptance above the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA supply zone near $3,340.
Ahead of that, the $3,300 psychological level must be scaled.
If the rebound sustains, the next topside hurdle is seen at the $3,380 static resistance.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 01, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 147K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
- Gold price looks vulnerable below $3,300, on track for another weekly loss on Friday.
- The US Dollar flirts with two-month highs as fresh US tariffs rattle markets.
- Gold price holds 100-day SMA support at $3,270, but not for long as technicals stay bearish.
Gold price is consolidating weekly losses while hanging close to monthly lows of $3,268 early Friday, awaiting a flurry of high-impact US data flow, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
Will Gold price see a big sell-off on US Nonfarm Payrolls data?
Markets remain risk-averse heading into the weekend, taking account of the fresh tariffs hit by US President Donald Trump on the August 1 deadline day this Friday.
Late Thursday, Trump announced minimum global tariff rates at 10%, while increasing levies on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
The president slapped a 39% tariff rate on imports from Switzerland. However, he gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to negotiate a broader trade deal.
The round of fresh tariff announcements sag investors’ confidence once again, as they flock to safety once again in the US Dollar (USD).
Fresh tariff concerns combined with the hawkish hold decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier this week continue to power the USD rally against its major currency rivals, keeping Gold price languishing in monthly troughs.
Attention now turns to the all-important US labor market report, with NFP data closely monitored for fresh hints on the timing of the next interest rate cut this year.
Markets are pricing in less than a 50% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, the US economy is expected to add 110,000 jobs in July after reporting a decent 147,000 growth in June. The Unemployment Rate is seen ticking a tad higher to 4.2% in July from 4.1% prior.
A print below the 100,000 level and a rise in the Unemployment Rate could signal signs of a weakening labor market, pushing back against the renewed hawkish Fed expectations and weighing on the Greenback. In such a scenario, Gold price could see a fresh recovery toward $3,400.
However, a headline NFP surprise above 150,000 could bolster the ongoing USD advance at the expense of the bright metal. Strong US jobs data will likely rule out bets for two Fed rate cuts this year.
Gold traders will pay close attention to the developments on the trade front and speeches from Fed policymakers, as they return from the ‘blackout period.’
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
With the Bear Cross still in play and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurking below the midline, downside bias remains intact for Gold price.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pierced through the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, validating a Bear Cross.
Therefore, a weekly closing below the critical support of the 100-day SMA at $3,270 is waited for a fresh downtrend toward the June 30 low of $3,248.
The line in the sand for Gold buyers is at the May 20 low of $3,205.
Conversely, any recovery attempts will need acceptance above the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA supply zone near $3,340.
Ahead of that, the $3,300 psychological level must be scaled.
If the rebound sustains, the next topside hurdle is seen at the $3,380 static resistance.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 01, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 110K
Previous: 147K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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