Gold price analysis: XAU/USD short-term increases but keeps downtrend in the long-term
|Gold continues moving around the price of $1780/oz - $1785/oz. This action shows the cautiousness of investors in the economic recovery and the excessive increase of Bitcoin. In the London session and New York session today, the moving will lead gold trendline in the next 3 days.
The DXY - US Dollar Index, moving around 90.3 - 90.5. Similar to Gold, the DXY is in an retesting uptrend after a dropping on 17th February, under the impact of the economic stimulus package of $1,900 billion, that was just approved last week.
Trend analysis
On the Daily chart, Gold breaks the Uptrend (which formed from April 2020). After showing signs of breaking, Gold increased slightly from $1760/oz to $1780/oz, this is considered a process of "retesting trend". Investors should observe the price range from $1780/oz - $1800/oz to have a reasonable investment decision.
On the 4-hour chart, Gold continues its trend of recovery and is going in the "price channel" of $1926/oz - $1756/oz.
Resistance/Support Analysis (Supply/Demand)
After breaking the support level of $1790/oz last week, the price suddenly rose again and tested the old support zone (which becoming the new resistance zone). The $1790/oz is very sensitive. If Gold breaks this resistance, the short-term target will go up to $1810/oz - $1830/oz. In the other hand, if Gold fails to break this resistance, I recommend that you could have sell orders.
The Resistance levels are $1790/oz, $1810/oz and $1830/oz.
The Support levels are $1740/oz and $1760/oz.
Fibonacci analysis
The Fibonacci tool is measured on the daily chart at the 2070/1760 level. After reaching to the Fibonacci 0 ($1760/oz) and going up in the previous week. This week, Gold continues to keep the price close to the Fibonacci 0.
Moving average MA
Note:
The 20 EMA is the blue line on the chart.
The 50 SMA is the black line on the chart.
The 200 SMA is the red line on the chart.
On the Daily chart, as I mentioned in the latest analysis, the EMA20/SMA50 moving average cross sed the SMA200 moving average and continues to go down. There is no reversal signal appearing in this chart. The SMA200 is considered a dynamic resistance.
On the 4-hour chart, the EMA20 moving average shows a bullish reversal signal. This is exactly same as Daily chart I have mentioned above. However, because the SMA50 has not reversed yet, which has not cut the SMA200, so I think this is a short-term correction signal.
On the 1-hour chart, the EMA20 moving average crossed the SMA50 moving average and went up, similar to the 4-hour chart, the signal has appeared and continues to accumulate. The SMA200 is considered a dynamic resistance zone and with the resistances which I mentioned above, are static resistance. Recommendation at the moment is buying short-term, keep the selling trend in medium-term and long-term.
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