Gold leads as bonds, Dollar and volatility reach critical macro levels [Video]
|A multi-asset view of how liquidity, risk and capital flows are lining up in early 2026
This video provides a macro-level update across Gold, US Treasury yields, the US Dollar, equity risk and volatility, showing how multiple asset classes are aligning around key structural levels at the start of 2026.
The update begins with Gold, which historically moves early when liquidity conditions are shifting. In December, Gold futures broke into a new long-term range between 4,350 and 5,000, marking a transition in the broader cycle. In early January, price pulled back to the lower boundary of that range near 4,350, held the level several times, and then pushed to new highs near 4,630, confirming acceptance of the new structure.
At the same time, Nasdaq continues to trade inside an extended risk-on environment. This indicates that financial conditions have not yet tightened, even as capital flows into Gold, highlighting a divergence between traditional risk assets and longer-term hedges.
Attention then turns to the US Treasury market. Both the 10-year and 30-year yields are sitting on major structural pivots. The 10-year yield is compressed around 4.16, while the 30-year yield is coiled near 4.84. When both ends of the yield curve stall at central pivots, it suggests the cost of capital is being repriced, setting up a potential macro inflection point.
The US Dollar Index is also positioned at its own long-term pivot near 98.86, inside a multi-year two-way structure. A sustained move above this level would signal tighter global liquidity, while a failure would point to a looser financial environment. The dollar is therefore closely linked to the direction of Treasury yields.
Finally, the video looks at the VIX, which remains near its long-term support band between 11 and 17. This area has held since 2021 and has previously preceded volatility expansions, indicating that risk is currently priced at relatively low levels despite elevated equity markets.
Together, these markets form a unified macro picture. Gold has already moved into a new long-term regime, while bonds, the dollar and volatility are now sitting at key decision points that will determine whether this transition leads to a broader expansion or a period of consolidation.
This analysis focuses on market structure and price behaviour rather than directional prediction, highlighting how acceptance or rejection of key levels will guide the next phase.
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