Glass half empty or half full?
|Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).
VIX looks to have topped yesterday, and coupled with the commodities and precious metals relative resilience (don‘t look at cryptos where I took sizable short profits in both Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday), sends a signal of upcoming good couple of dozen points rebound in the S&P 500. Taking a correct view at the heightened, emotional market slide yesterday, is through the portfolio performance – as you can see via clicking the link, yesterday‘s setup needn‘t and shouldn‘t be anyone‘s make or break situation.
Let‘s move right into the charts.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook
S&P 500 buyers stepped in, and carving out a nice lower knot today is the minimum expectation that the bulls can have. The reversal is still very young and vulnerable.
Credit markets
HYG reversed, but isn‘t in an uptrend yet – there is just a marginal daily outperformance of quality debt instruments. More is needed.
Gold, silver and miners
Gold and silver are only pausing – in spite of the miners move to the downside at the moment. HUI and GDX will catch up – they‘re practically primed to do so over the medium- term.
Crude oil
Crude oil bulls are still getting tested, and oil stocks stabilized on a daily basis. Some downside still remains, but nothing dramatic – the volume didn‘t even rise yesterday.
Copper
Copper declined, but didn‘t meaningfully lead lower – the downswing was actually bought, and low 4.40s look to be well defended at the moment. More fear striking, would change the picture, but we aren‘t there yet.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin and Ethereum reversed, but in spire of the volume, look to need more time to bottom out – and I wouldn‘t be surprised if that included another decline.
Summary
S&P 500 bulls would get tested today again, and at least a draw would be a positive result, as yesterday‘s tech upswing is more likely to be continued tomorrow than today – that‘s how it usually goes after sizable (think 5%) range days. The table is set for an upside surprise on FOMC tomorrow – the tantrum coupled with war fears bidding up the dollar, is impossible to miss. Best places to be in remain commodities and precious metals, and the coming S&P 500 upswing looks to be a worthwhile opportunity in the making, too – on a short-term and nimble basis. So, I‘m more in the glass half full camp going into tomorrow. Anyway, let‘s take the portfolio view discussed in the opening part of today‘s article.
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