GBP/USD Forecast: Stabilization above 1.2400 will be an encouraging sign for bulls
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UNLOCK OFFER- GBP/USD has staged a rebound following the decline seen earlier in the week.
- The near-term technical outlook shows that bulls remain interested.
- The pair is likely to face strong resistance at 1.2450.
After having registered losses in the first two trading days of the week, GBP/USD has managed to close in positive territory on Wednesday and stretched higher to the 1.2400 area early Thursday. Near-term technical developments point to a bullish tilt but the impact of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on the US Dollar's valuation is likely to drive the pair's action in the second half of the day.
The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar fueled GBP/USD's rebound in the American session on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada's intention to leave the policy rate steady and assess the effect of tightening on the economy following the 25 basis points rate hike announced on Wednesday weighed on global bond yields. With the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield pushing lower toward 3.4%, the US Dollar weakened against its major rivals.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the first estimate of the fourth quarter GDP growth later in the day.
Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, the market reaction to the US GDP data could remain short-lived. Nevertheless, a lower than 2.6% expected annualized growth in the Q4 could weigh on the US Dollar as it would remind investors of a worsening economic outlook. On the other hand, a reading close to 3% should confirm the Fed's view about the US economy staying resilient despite rate increases and help the US Dollar find demand. In that scenario, GBP/USD is likely to come under renewed bearish pressure.
The US Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will also be featured in the US economic docket. Additionally, the US Census Bureau will publish Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data for December.
It could be difficult for investors to navigate through all the US data releases but the overall risk perception should provide a directional clue for the US Dollar. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.1% and 0.5% on the day. A risk rally in Wall Street's main indexes is likely to hurt the US Dollar and vice versa.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD managed to return within the ascending regression channel after having spent the majority of the day below it on Wednesday. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart rose slightly above 50. On a slightly bearish note, the pair met resistance near 1.2400 and failed to advance into the upper half of the channel at its first attempt.
In case GBP/USD rises above 1.2400 and starts using that level as support, 1.2430 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as interim hurdle before the pair could target 1.2450 (static level) and 1.2480 (upper-limit of the channel).
On the downside, a four-hour close below 1.2375 (lower-limit of the channel) could attract sellers and trigger an extended slide toward 1.2330 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.2300 (static level, psychological level).
- GBP/USD has staged a rebound following the decline seen earlier in the week.
- The near-term technical outlook shows that bulls remain interested.
- The pair is likely to face strong resistance at 1.2450.
After having registered losses in the first two trading days of the week, GBP/USD has managed to close in positive territory on Wednesday and stretched higher to the 1.2400 area early Thursday. Near-term technical developments point to a bullish tilt but the impact of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on the US Dollar's valuation is likely to drive the pair's action in the second half of the day.
The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar fueled GBP/USD's rebound in the American session on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada's intention to leave the policy rate steady and assess the effect of tightening on the economy following the 25 basis points rate hike announced on Wednesday weighed on global bond yields. With the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield pushing lower toward 3.4%, the US Dollar weakened against its major rivals.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the first estimate of the fourth quarter GDP growth later in the day.
Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, the market reaction to the US GDP data could remain short-lived. Nevertheless, a lower than 2.6% expected annualized growth in the Q4 could weigh on the US Dollar as it would remind investors of a worsening economic outlook. On the other hand, a reading close to 3% should confirm the Fed's view about the US economy staying resilient despite rate increases and help the US Dollar find demand. In that scenario, GBP/USD is likely to come under renewed bearish pressure.
The US Department of Labor's weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will also be featured in the US economic docket. Additionally, the US Census Bureau will publish Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data for December.
It could be difficult for investors to navigate through all the US data releases but the overall risk perception should provide a directional clue for the US Dollar. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.1% and 0.5% on the day. A risk rally in Wall Street's main indexes is likely to hurt the US Dollar and vice versa.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD managed to return within the ascending regression channel after having spent the majority of the day below it on Wednesday. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart rose slightly above 50. On a slightly bearish note, the pair met resistance near 1.2400 and failed to advance into the upper half of the channel at its first attempt.
In case GBP/USD rises above 1.2400 and starts using that level as support, 1.2430 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as interim hurdle before the pair could target 1.2450 (static level) and 1.2480 (upper-limit of the channel).
On the downside, a four-hour close below 1.2375 (lower-limit of the channel) could attract sellers and trigger an extended slide toward 1.2330 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.2300 (static level, psychological level).
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