GBP/USD Forecast: poised to extend its decline towards 1.2000
|The Pound shows little aims to recover ground, in spite of the good macroeconomic figures seen during these last days. Indeed, indicators have shown signs of economic improvement after the initial knee-jerk post Brexit's referendum, but those positive numbers are just the result of a cheaper Pound. The key here is that the up-tick in indicators won't be sustainable in time, particularly if the UK ends up getting a "hard-Brexit." And this is not something only Theresa May could decide or not, it also depends on the rest of the EU members that for now, have shown no intentions to offer soft conditions to the kingdom.
US data on the other hand, has been ok, not shockingly strong, but neither enough to prevent the US from rising rates sometime in the near term. In this scenario, the GBP/USD pair´s bearish trend is inevitable in the longer run. Shorter term, daily woes can push the pair temporarily higher, but as long as the price remains below 1.2335, chances of a recovery are pretty much null.
For this Friday, the technical picture favors the downside, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price is extending below its 20 SMA that anyway remains flat, while technical indicators head modestly lower within bearish territory, with limited momentum at this time of the day, as investors are waiting for US data.
The immediate support is last week's low at 1.2082, with a break below it supporting a slide down to the key 1.2000 level. Above 1.2200, the pair can advance towards the 1.2260 region, although selling interest is expected to contain the rally around this last.
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