GBP/USD fails to break through descending trend-channel on latest Brexit news
|The greenback was little changed against its major counterparts, with the US Dollar Index hovering around Monday's multi-week low level around the key 100.00 psychological mark. The greenback selling pressure slowed a bit in an uneventful trading session on Monday on hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Philly Fed Governor Harker.
A thin US economic calendar on Tuesday, featuring the release of Current Account data, would provide little incentive for traders to initiate fresh positions. Hence, it seems more likely to be yet another uneventful trading session for the greenback.
The major failed to build on Monday's bullish spike beyond an important confluence resistance near 1.2410-15 region and snapped three consecutive days of winning streak. The pair retreated around 100-pips after climbing to monthly tops near 1.2435 region after the UK government announced that it would formally trigger Article 50 and begin the process of leaving the European Union on March 29.
The pair, however, seems to have found immediate support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2706-1.2109 recent downslide. Against the backdrop of a failed attempt to break through a descending trend-channel, and in ability to sustain its strength above an important confluence resistance, a follow through retracement below this immediate support near 1.2335-30 region would reaffirm movement within the descending trend-channel and is likely to drag the pair back towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level support near mid-1.2200s with some intermediate support near 1.2290-85 area.
On the flip side, 1.2410-15 confluence region, comprising of - 100-day SMA, a short-term descending trend-channel resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2706-1.2109 recent downslide, remains immediate strong hurdle to clear. A convincing break through this immediate barrier would suggest a break-out and is likely to accelerate the up-move towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level resistance near 1.2475-80 region ahead of the 1.2500 psychological mark.
The EUR/USD pair recovered early losses to 1.0700 neighborhood in reaction to the polls showing centrist Emmanuel Macron coming out on top at the first French Presidential debate. The pair is now heading back to multi-week highs resistance near 1.0780 region, which if cleared decisively is likely to accelerate the pair’s up-move beyond the 1.0800 handle towards testing 1.0820 resistance, marking 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1300-1.0341 downfall. Momentum above 1.0820 hurdle is likely to get extended further towards the very important 200-day SMA strong barrier near the 1.0900 round figure mark.
Meanwhile, on the downside, any retracement back below 1.0735-30 area is likely to find support at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.0700 handle. Only a decisive break below the said handle would negate any near-term bullish bias and drag the pair towards 100-day SMA support near 1.0660-55 region. A follow through selling pressure now seems to pave way for a break below 1.0600 mark and extend the slide towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level support near 1.0565-60 region ahead of the key 1.0500 psychological mark.
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