France: Q3 growth prospects look decent, nothing more
|Our Pulse indicators are less dispersed than at first glance. In the north-east quadrant, sending a positive signal, we find in particular the INSEE confidence surveys for September whereas in the south-west quadrant, lending a negative signal, we have August hard data. Which signal prevails ? The question has no easy answer. The good performance of the INSEE surveys is as encourageing as is concerning the disappointing trend of production and household consumption expenditure on goods. Our Nowcast model reconciles the two sets of data. Be it based on the soft data or on the hard ones, Q3 growth is estimated at a similar small 0.2% q/q. This matches our official forecast while the INSEE and the Bank of France have just confirmed their own at 0.3%.
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