Financial astrology: preferably exit or be short than long markets
|1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
1. Buy or Sell Markets? This depends on your time frame!
Prices can turn quickly on different headline’s– Trader’s Delight/Investor’s Hell.
Favorite 2020 Sectors: Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & Entertainment.
THE 64K QUESTION: WHITHER STOCK MARKETS NEXT: How High is Up? How Low is Down?
SPX 3100, 3150 or Higher? SPX 3020, 3010 2990 or Lower?
Unless you closely track the horoscopes of President Trump, Chairman Xi AND Fed Chairman Powell, the correct answer is unknown.
Note: We were somewhat concerned that markets did not retract Friday when Trump said the rollback on China Tariffs “under discussion”, not agreed to.
OUR VIEWS
Despite recent market action, I rather exit or be short than long markets.
Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will continue be TRADING MARKETS.
Markets currently have had an upside bias, but valuations are increasing unappealing for more than a few stocks.
If/When Xi/Trump French kiss, markets could rally more, but if so, we plan to sell more! If they spit, after we will buy for a XMAS rally.
BEING NAKED LONG OR SHORT IS RISKY: OUR SHORTS ARE HEDGED; OUR CASH POSITIONS ARE RISING!
Proper Valuations:
US$ 97.25 - 98.75
OIL 52-58
CNY ~ < 7
SILVER 16-18
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
DJIA > 27500
SP > 3068
NASDAQ > 8400
US 10 Year Bond 1.85-2.00
TIPS > 115
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 8800
GOLD > 1425
BP < 130
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260
H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; SOLD 3030 & 3058 SHORT SPX 3057 & 3088
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Why the prospective $70 billion buyout of Walgreens may signal the stock-market rally is about to end
KEY DATES: November 11-18
DJIA: 26800 SUPPORT 27800 RESISTANCE
SPX: S1 3066 S2 3020 S3 3010 R1 3100 R2 3150
NASDAQ: 8250 SUPPORT 8500 OR 8800 RESISTANCE?
GOLD: 1450 PIVOT S1 1450 S2 1425 S3 1410 R1 1480 R2 1500 R3
SILVER: 16.50 SUPPORT? 16.80 PIVOT
OIL: 56 PIVOT 52 SUPPORT 58 RESISTANCE
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: 9500 RESISTANCE 7500 SUPPORT
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1412
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation: THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least continue to rotate stock sectors into value.
Stock selection remains important. We recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets and into 2020.
3. Copper remains the most undervalued commodity we track.
It is a pawn of the US/China trade spat.
The CNY has moved back under 7 - we should then expect a retest of 2.80-3.00.
Currently below 7.01 is positive while above 7.08, it would again be negative for Copper & other markets.
While Silver $20 & $25 is possible in the future, we do not see it short term. We do want to see still lower prices, so we can again be on the long side. Ditto with Gold.
However we note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences this year and next.
Gold bugs are happy now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party: However, we still see it as too expensive just now.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add FALL 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1412 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1366 + Crisis FV: 1528.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG into 2020 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold above $1500. For silver our current selling numbers remain $18.10 - $20.
UPDATE: We will be looking to reBUY Gold < 1410-1425 & Silver < 16-16.25.
4. "The economy has slowed down, but the risk of hitting a wall in the next year are pretty low."
Stuart Hoffman, senior economic adviser, PNC Financial
HW: But then what about 2021?
“I don’t think you can blame people for being a bit cautious or skeptical. If anything, earnings growth for this year has come down, and earnings expectations for next year have come down.”
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist, CFRA Research
HW: A cautious/skeptical view is quite rational.
“The path of least resistance is towards lower rates.”
Michael Lorizio, senior fixed income trader, Manulife Asset Management
HW: Perhaps, perhaps not.
5. Get ready for another Santa Claus rally
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