Financial Astrology For The Sucessful Investor And Trader
|1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1.WHITHER STOCK MARKETS? Backtracking Fed Puts an End to Market Celebration
We continue our fundamental downward bias for the July earnings season, despite widely expected FED accommodation.
Our initial Trading Target is the April 30 Market Close:
DJIA 26,592 SPX 2945
Seasonal weakness in world equity indices appeared on schedule last week. Most equity markets are intermediate overbought and have started to roll over. At this time of year, equity markets have a history of entering into a period of increased volatility with a downward bias into mid-October. Events trigger seasonal weakness this year include lower year-over-year second quarter earnings reports by major corporations (including two consecutive year-over-year quarterly earnings declines), increasing political uncertainty… growing Middle East tensions and unsettled trade negotiations.
Mark Leibovit, Editor, VRTRADER PLATINUM LETTER
OUR VIEWS
- Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, the current Market rally has gone TOO FAR, TOO FAST.
- We repeat our major July Trade Long Copper (Astrology + Fundamental + Technical)
- Swing Trade is Short Markets. We are playing for SP 2950/2900 before 3050.
Proper Valuations:
US$ 96-98
OIL 53-60
SILVER 16-16.50
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
SP > 2910
DJIA > 26827
NASDAQ > 8000
US 10 Year Bond <2.18
TIPS > 114
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 4000
GOLD > 1425
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; Buy Copper 270, 266 & 1 TBA > 275
H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX:
Crypto is an unregulated casino, where criminality runs riot
KEY DATES: July 30/31
DJIA: 27000 SUPPORT? R1 27500 or 28000 RESISTANCE?
SPX: 3000 PIVOT S1 2980 S2 2958 S3 2900 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: 8200 PIVOT 8000 SUPPORT? 8350 Resistance
GOLD: 1425 PIVOT S1 1400 S2 1390 R1 1425 R2 1444 R3 1458
SILVER: 16 PIVOT 15.50 SUPPORT 16.40 RESISTANCE
OIL: 55 PIVOT 52 SUPPORT 62 RESISTANCE
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE : 2020 à 3.50+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: S1 10000 S2 9200 S3 8000 14000 RESISTANCE
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1390
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Business & Banquets:
We obviously think companies that presented at our July 17 XXVII Triple Gold Conference are worth researching.
Those that are small and microcap, can easily provide outsized returns, however, they are best bought in a basket of higher risk/high reward portfolio allocation.
We continue to hold Maximum Allocation precious and base metal investments for the intermediate and long term.
Stock selection remains important. Elsewhere we recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios will continue to deservedly outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets.
3. "Demand is quite weak, especially with prices over $1,400 an ounce."
Dick Poon, general manager, Heraeus Precious Metals.
"When prices dipped below $1,400, we saw some clients coming in. But increasingly, more customers have been switching to (cheaper) silver."
Brian Lan, managing director, GoldSilver Central
Gold bugs are finally happy as generalist investors are beginning to join the party: Forecasts for $1500 & $1600 gold become more frequent (even if wrong).
However, we believe, gold valuations will largely sport above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in August and in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
Silver 15 Support 15.50 Resistance weakening
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add SUMMER 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1390 = Commodity FV: 1359 + Currency FV: 1376 + Inflation Metal FV: 1367 + Crisis FV: 1458.
Gold/Silver ratio à 88- Silver FV $16.50+.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2019 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we will again likely periodically short gold $1428-1458. For silver our first selling numbers was $20+, but currently is being recalculated lower.
4. Clearly the biggest risk to the most recent rally is the earnings season."
Ryan Felsman, senior economist, CommSec
HW: Duh!
“We think earnings are going to be generally positive this season. We’ve been on a tear this year, but we still have some room to go.”
Lamar Villere, portfolio manager, The Villere Balanced Fund
HW: Yes but not sufficient to FUNDEMENTALLY justify many current valuations.
“We’re not looking for the bottom to fallout like last year, but I do expect a 10% correction in the next three months.”
Mike Wilson, chief investment officer, Morgan Stanley
HW: Certainly if markets drop to 2750-2700, there will be plenty of eager buyers.
5. What A Time To Be Alive And Trading
An Unprecedented Market Divergence: Robots Are All In As Humans Flee
Investors Risk Getting Tangled Up In Fed-Markets Feedback Loop
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