Everything feels weird out here — From Gold’s hangover to Silicon’s fatigue

Everything feels weird out here

The market right now feels like an Escher drawing — the stairs rise and fall at the same time, and everyone swears they’re climbing higher even as gravity quietly changes direction. From the macro lens, nothing fits the usual template. Correlations that once anchored conviction have come unmoored; the old compass of risk-on/risk-off now spins aimlessly between greed and disbelief.

Gold, the great refuge of doubt, has been bleeding, but it is still embraced by retail with a kind of manic devotion. They’re catching the falling knife today with both hands, convinced that any dip is just another chapter in the fiat-debasement gospel. Futures desks call it “precious puke,” but retail calls it “buy the dip.” The irony is rich: the crowd that once chased meme stocks is now the largest marginal buyer of bullion. Fear has become faith.

Meanwhile, the S&P and Nasdaq trade like they’re front-running Santa himself. Historically, the late-year drift higher has logic — October to December is a seasonally strong period. And yet, the bond market tells a different story altogether. Ten-year yields under 4% with equities near all-time highs is a visual glitch that shouldn’t exist outside a simulation.

Either the bond market is whispering “disinflation ahead” — a soft landing so soft it’s nearly a mirage — or it’s quietly pricing in the rot beneath the surface. Cyclicals have rolled over. Credit spreads hum with unease. GIR’s global growth proxy has plunged. The macro instruments are playing in minor keys while equities dance to AI techno at full volume.

It’s that AI fever — still the loudest soundtrack in town. Hyperscalers can’t stop spending. But under the gloss, the returns on those AI capex orgies are starting to look stretched. Oracle’s backlog ( the canary?) — once the holy proof of AI’s limitless runway — is fading. If the next tier, the Nvidias and Broadcoms, face similar ROI doubt, the AI dream could morph from revolution to reckoning. Many of these formerly hot trades are already fading.

Even the consumer version of AI — ChatGPT downloads and mobile engagement — has plateaued. It’s the digital equivalent of fatigue: the public that once saw magic now shrugs. The dopamine curve has flattened. Attention has migrated back to what always sells — and the cruel joke of the moment is that OnlyFans remains the world’s most revenue-efficient platform. Porn still beats AI in the real economy.

Underneath all of this, what unnerves correlation players is not that markets are irrational — they always are — but that every signal seems to be talking past the others. Bonds whisper slowdown, equities shout optimism, commodities mutter exhaustion, and retail sings hallelujah. It’s a cacophony that refuses to resolve. The market machine is still dancing, but the rhythm has fractured; every beat lands half a second off.

It’s weird, yes — profoundly weird — but maybe that’s the new normal. When everything decouples, when every cross-asset link breaks down, we’re no longer in a cycle but in a hall of mirrors. You can make money here, but only if you stop expecting symmetry. In this market, logic is optional, and conviction is a luxury. The only rule that still works is the oldest one in trading: while the music plays, everyone dances — but keep your eye on the exits, because no one knows when the band stops.