EUR/USD stays under pressure near 1.1850
|- EURUSD edges lower for a fifth straight session.
- Price remains above the key 20-day SMA.
- RSI and MACD hold in positive-to-neutral territory.
EURUSD is holding losses near 1.1865, extending the pullback from the 1.1900 region despite the dollar coming under pressure on Friday following softer inflation figures, which reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts. That said, activity remains muted on Monday with US markets closed for the President’s Day holiday.
The RSI is hovering above the neutral threshold, though it is flattening, while the MACD remains above zero but marginally below its red signal line. This indicates that momentum has cooled but also suggests that any dips may remain limited before the broader uptrend reasserts itself.
If the price rebounds off the short-term uptrend line where it currently sits and clears the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 27-February 6 pullback from the four‑and‑a‑half‑year high at 1.1885, resistance could emerge at the monthly highs near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.1923. A further extension could target 1.1960-1.1974, just below the key 1.2000 threshold, the highest level since June 2021.
Conversely, a continuation of the current decline could return the pair to the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), just above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1839, followed by the 1.1800-1.1820 region, and then the February 6 trough of 1.1765, located just above the 50‑day SMA.
In summary, despite the recent slide, EURUSD is expected to maintain its near‑term bullish bias as long as it holds above the key 20‑day SMA, while the 50‑day SMA provides a broader floor for deeper corrective moves.
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