Analysis

EUR/USD recovered from the 1.1550 breach mid-August

EUR/USD

EUR/USD recovered from the 1.1550 breach mid-August (USD strength following EM stress). For now, the pair is blocked within a tight 1.15/18 consolidation pattern.

 

EUR/GBP

As the deadline approaches, sterling is increasingly sensitive to Brexit. However, real Brexit progress has yet to be made and keeps the pound in the defensive.

 

USD/JPY

USD/JPY oscillates around the well-known 111-level as overall risk aversion triggers safe haven flights to both currencies and keeps the pair balanced.

 

EUR/CZK

The Czech central bank increased rates in August and is expected to do so again in September. The Czech koruna strengthened as markets are anticipating to a central bank committed to policy normalisation.

 

EUR/HUF

EUR/HUF left the 305-315 trading range and found higher ground following Orban's election victory and during the emerging market turmoil. Despite a slightly less dovish NBH (guidance) stance, rate hikes are still far off.

 

EUR/PLN

The zloty took a hit as the dollar firmed on the back of many emerging market currencies. Furthermore, the NBP has no intention at all to normalize policy any time soon.

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