EUR/USD has been well offered, falling from just above 1.1200
|Weekly FX Wrap: Another good week for the USD, with the EUR weakening further in the wake of the ECB meeting. GBP sellers still out there, but not getting it all their own way. CAD hits new multi month lows through 1.3300 after soft inflation.
What should perhaps be a EUR led end to the week has resulted in further gains in the USD index, winning out across the board except for USD/JPY which has clearly struggled through the 104.00 level. We have highlighted the strength of offers ahead of 105.00 in recent weeks, and despite the firm US yields, the risk correlated pair has been well capped. Going into Thursday's ECB meeting though, EUR/USD has been well offered, falling from just above 1.1200 to 1.0950 ahead of yesterday's meeting but taking out demand through 1.0950-1.0900 and now eyeing a move closer to levels around 1.0800. Governor Draghi insisted neither QE tapering or an extension was discussed, only that policy would be reviewed with fresh data at the time. Elsewhere, we have seen some signs that the GBP is trying to stabilise, but with the market keen to sell rallies, Cable has stumbled again – this time ahead of the mid 1.2300's to maintain focus on 1.2000 lower down. There has been a little more joy against the EUR, with the cross-rate dipping briefly under .8900. PM Theresa May's first EU summit currently under way does not seem to have produced any awkward moments as yet, as she has stated that the UK aims to avoid any disruption in its exit, but with some of the data out this week coming in on the softer side – retail sales and PSNB more recently – UK bears are still in control with few seeing little reason for any respite. It is much the same for the CAD – albeit at levels some way above its lows seen at the start of the year – but despite the recovery in Oil prices, we have seen little interest here to allow for sub 1.3000 again, pushing to fresh multi month highs above 1.3300 after both the Sep inflation and Aug retail sales disappointed today. AUD took another look through .7700 earlier in the week, but since the surprise fall in jobs (report), it has been a slow descent, with a move under .7600 in the making. NZD has been following the crowd, with the move into the upper .7200's all too brief. Back in the mid .7100's we are seeing a little stability into the weekend, though price action may hot up as we start to look to the early Nov RBNZ meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is 84% priced in. Looking to next week, we have US and UK GDP to look to as well as European and US PMIs. The German Ifo report is out along with inflation numbers but with the week starting off with Japanese trade data. Central bank focus on the Scandies – both the Riksbank and Norges bank delivering their latest policy reviews.
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