EUR/USD Forecast: Weighed by risk aversion
|EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0916
- Wall Street turned negative after the long weekend, favouring safe-havens’ demand.
- Coronavirus-related curves are improving in Europe, but numbers still rough in the US.
- EUR/USD pressuring 1.0890 Fibonacci support, but overall neutral in the short-term.
Demand for safety has helped the greenback recover some ground against the shared currency this Monday, although its behaviour was uneven across the board. The EUR/USD pair fell to a daily low of 1.0892 at the beginning of the American session. Following a long weekend which saw most markets stay close since last Friday, Wall Street returned to business. US indexes edged sharply lower, while gold and the Japanese yen appreciated, all reflecting renewed concerns about the future of global economies.
The focus remains on the coronavirus pandemic, as it would be a long and painful return to economic growth once controlled, something not yet at sight. Some encouraging signs are coming from Europe, as the number of new cases and the death toll, both are decreasing in Spain and Italy, the most troubled countries. The US, on the other hand, has not yet reached its peak.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the mentioned low but ended the day in the red around 1.0910. The pair is neutral, according to the 4-hour chart, as technical indicators ease modestly within positive levels. The pair is barely holding above its 100 SMA, which lacks directional strength and converges with a Fibonacci support level at 1.0890, the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run. The 200 SMA is also directionless, near the 23.6% retracement of the same rally, this last at 1.1025. The risk of a steeper decline should increase on a break below the 1.0820 price zone, where the pair has the 61.8% retracement of the mentioned advance.
Support levels: 1.0890 1.0850 1.0820
Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.0990 1.1020
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