EUR/USD Forecast: waiting extends, but not for long
|The EUR/USD pair trades flat around 1.0630, although the pair fell down to 1.0599 early Asia, as the greenback maintained the lead across the board. With the exception of the Pound, majors are quietly waiting in range for the Fed's decision late in the US afternoon, as the American Central Bank has largely anticipated a 25bps rate hike for this meeting. Ahead of the Federal Reserve, the EU will release its quarterly employment data for Q4 2016, while the US will report February Retail Sales and CPI. These last are usually quite relevant and tend to move the market, although this time, the market could prefer to "wait-and-see."
The pair has been trading in a well defined range for over a month, with the base set at 1.0490, where it bottomed twice, and the top being the 1.0700/20 region, around the 38.2% retracement of the post-US election decline. The pair is closer to this last with only the 1.0660 in the way as resistance.
It would take an extremely negative surprise coming from Yellen to push the pair beyond the mentioned 1.0700/20 region, with the pair then targeting 1.0760 as immediate resistance, en route to 1.0820, the 50% retracement of the mentioned monthly decline.
To the downside, 1.0600 is the immediate support, but it would take a break below 1.0565 to confirm a bearish extension towards the base of the range at 1.0490/520.
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