EUR/USD Forecast: Quiet climb continues and more may come, bulls are in control
|- EUR/USD is trading at a two-week high as the market mood improves.
- A light calendar may leave the focus on Brexit developments and Fed speculation.
- The technical picture is clearly bullish for the pair.
EUR/USD is trading in the mid-1.1300s, the highest since March 4th. It had already recovered the losses incurred by the dovish ECB twist and is now extending its gains.
Similar to last week, the drivers come from outside the old continent. The UK Parliament decided to reject a no-deal Brexit previous week an extension of Article 50 is imminent. Over the weekend, there are signs that the third Meaningful Vote on May's deal may pass. While the situation is fluid, the upbeat mood supports the pound and also the euro.
Stocks markets are up as China's recent economic figures have not been too bad. Several analysts see the Chinese economy "landing safely" and not crashing. A Trump-Xi Summit may wait for June, according to Chinese media. Nevertheless, as long as the trade "truce" continues and the US does not impose new tariffs, stocks can keep rising.
On Friday, US consumer confidence came out slightly above expectations. In theory, this development should be USD-positive, but as it shows lower risk, it weighs on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese yen.
The Fed's rate decision on Wednesday is already eyed. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are set to leave the interest rate unchanged and exercise patience, as they pledged. The focus is on the projections for further rate increases, known as the "dot-plot." A downgrade from two hikes to one hike this year is the base-case scenario, but all options are on the table.
See: Fed Preview: Three scenarios for the crucial dot-plot and three other things to watch
Today's light calendar features the German Bundesbank Monthly Report and the NAHB Housing Market Index, both third-tier events.
Developments around Brexit and the market mood ahead of the Fed will likely have their say.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD kicked off the week by climbing above the 200 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart, another bullish sign, joining upside Momentum and a positive Relative Strength Index (RSI). All in all, the quiet climb seems set to continue.
Resistance awaits at 1.1360 that provided support to the pair in late February. The next cap is already much higher: 1.1410 that was a swing high in early March. 1.1420 awaits close by. It is a high point in February. 1.1485 is next.
1.1345 was a high point last week and is still fought over. 1.1324 capped EUR/USD in early March and 1.1305 was a swing low on the way up last week and a swing low in March. 1.1295 provided support last week, and 1.1275 was a stepping stone on the way up.
Support lines are dense and resistance is sparse.
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