EUR/USD Forecast: pressuring the highs, 1.1300 back on the table
|Having softened within range at the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD pair regained the upside and trades a handful of pips below its yearly high this Thursday, as the dollar came under pressure after the release of FOMC Minutes late Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve reaffirmed its tightening path, although policymakers added that would be "prudent" to wait for further evidence that the setback in macroeconomic data seen on Q1 was temporal.
The pair moves higher in slow motion, given that the Asian calendar had little to offer, and several European countries are today on holiday, also leaving the local macroeconomic calendar scarce. The most relevant event today is the OPEC meeting, taking place in Vienna, although a nine-month extension of its output cut has been pretty much confirmed, and therefore oil prices may saw a limited reaction to the actual announcement.
In the US, weekly unemployment data, wholesale inventories and the goods trade balance, will do little for the greenback, even if better-than-expected.
Technically, the pair pressures the 1.1250 region, and the 4 hours chart shows that it has regained ground above a now bullish 20 SMA, but also that the Momentum indicator remains flat around its 100 level, amid limited volumes. The RSI indicator, however, heads north around 65, anticipating some further gains ahead, particularly on a break above 1.1265, and towards 1.1300, the high reached last November as an immediate reaction to the US election. Beyond it, 1.1345 is the next intraday resistance and probable bullish target.
1.1210 is the immediate support, followed by the 1.1160/80 region. should the pair accelerate below this last, the downward corrective movement can extend down to 1.1080.
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